Farm Weather Forecast
Synopsis

Northeast Monsoon affecting extreme northern luzon. Easterlies affecting the eastern portion of the rest of the country.

Issued at: 8AM Thursday, December 7, 2017
Valid until: 8AM Friday, December 8, 2017
FWFA: 17-342
Forecast Area Agri-Weather Winds Temperature Relativity Humidity Leaf Wetness
Luzon,Visayas,Caraga,Nothern Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula

Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains - Metro Manila and the Regions of Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, Central Luzon and Calabarzon:

Cloudy with scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms - Visayas and the Regions of Mimaropa, Bicol, Caraga, Northern Mindanao and Zamboanga Penisula.

Moderate to strong from northeast - Luzon and Eastern section of Visayas: Light to moderate from northeast - Rest

24 - 33°C Lowland Farm

16 - 24°C Upland Farm

60 - 80% 0 - 6 Hours
Rest of Mindanao Partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. Light to moderate from northeast

24 - 33°C Lowland Farm

16 - 24°C Upland Farm

55 - 90% 0 - 4 Hours
Soil Moisture Condition
Wet

Region 2,4A,5,6,8,9,10,13 Rest of Region 3,7,NCR,Davao and ARMM

Moist

Region 1,CAR,Pampanga and Dumaguete

Dry

Rest of the Country

Farming Advisories
  • Continue daily farm activities (Fertilizer Application, Weeding, Land Preperation, Planting, Transplanting, Harvesting, Cleaning)
  • Maintain cleanliness of canals or ditches to avoid flashfloods due to heavy rains brought by thunderstorms;
  • Store harvested crops in elevated and covered places;
  • Use covered vans when transporting goods to the marketplace;
  • Have emergency lights ready and always tune-in to your radio for the latest farming from pagasa.
Fishing Advisories

The coastal waters OVER LUZON AND EASTERN SECTION OF VISAYAS will be moderate to rough. ELSEWHERE, It will be slight to moderate seas. Reminders to our fisherfolks especially to those using small boats to refrain from going out to the sea in those areas or must be very extra careful and always bring emergency kit when going out into the sea. While mindanao will have slight to moderate seas. Be updated for the latest weather forecast and farm advisories.

Red Tide Alert Courtesy of BFAR, Shellfish Bullet No. 38, Issued on 18 November 2017

All types of shellfish and alamang collected from DARAM ISLAND, IRONG-IRONG BAY, MAQUEDA BAY, VILLAREAL BAY AND CAMBATUTAY BAY IN WESTER SAMAR; MATARINAO BAY IN EASTERN SAMAR; CARIGARA BAY IN LEYTE; INNER MALAMPAYA SOUND, TAYTAY IN PALAWAN; COASTAL WATERS OF MANDAON IN MASBATEL BATAAN COASTAL WATERS (MARIVELES, LIMAY, ORION, PILAR, BALANGA, ORANI, ABUCAY AND SAMAL) are not safe for human consumption. Fishermen are advised not to gather over the areas.

10 - Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DEKAD NO. 01      JANUARY 1-10, 2018

Philippine Agri-Weather Forecast

The weather systems that will affect the whole country are northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, easterlies and low pressure area (LPA).


During the first half of the dekad, the regions of Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Eastern Visayas and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have cloudiness with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms while Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands will experience light rains due to the northeast monsoon. The regions of Ilocos and Cordillera are expected to have isolated light rains while the rest of the country will have good weather except for having isolated localized thunderstorms particularly at the eastern section of the country. During the second half of the dekad, Visayas and Mindanao will have cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms while Luzon will have isolated light rains throughout the rest of the forecast period.


During the early days of the dekad, northeasterly winds will prevail over Northern Luzon while Visayas and the rest of Luzon will have winds from the east to northeast. Winds coming from the east to northwest will blow over Mindanao. After this, northeasterly windflow will gradually progress over Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will have winds coming from the northeast to northwest. Gradual shift of wind direction is expected to take place on the latter days of the dekad. Winds coming from the north to northeast will blow over over Luzon while Visayas will have winds from the northeast to southeast. Mindanao will have winds coming from the north to northeast.


The seaboards of Northern Luzon will be moderate to rough during the first day of the dekad while the rest of the archipelago will have slight to moderate seas. After this, moderate to rough seas are expected over Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas. The areas not mentioned above will have slight to moderate seas. During the latter part of the first half of the dekad, the northern and central portion of Luzon will have moderate to rough seas while the coastal waters over Visayas, Mindanao and the rest of Luzon will be slight to moderate. During the early days of the second half of the dekad, the seaboards of Luzon and the eastern section of Visayas will gradually become moderate to rough while the remaining coastal waters of the archipelago will be slight to moderate. Afterwards, Luzon is expected to have moderate to rough seas while the rest of the archipelago will have slight to moderate seas throughout the remaining forecast period.


The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.

Farm Advisories

The low temperatures of the winter season can cause chilling and freezing of plants and animals. The lower temperature prevailing during the growing period can prolong the vegetative period of standing crops. Plants require a specific total amount of heat units or degree days that determines the number of days to maturity. Very low temperature occurring during the flowering stage can be cause of physical malformation of plant parts and fruits. *

Regional Agrometeorological Situation and Prognosis

REGION 1 Ilocos Region


Forecast Rainfall (mm):

0 - 25

Rainy Days (0.1mm or more):

0 - 3

Actual Soil Moisture Condition:

Moist

Range of Relative Humidity (%):

60 - 95

Min - Max Temperature (°C):

24 - 32

Crop Phenology, Situation and Farm Activities:

Most rice is in vegetative stage. Harvesting of beans, patola, tomatoes, and onions is on-going. Land preparation, transplanting and planting of rice in some areas are on-going. Planting of peanut, garlic, sugarcane, eggplant and onion are in progress.

Prepared By:

SCF/ RAAM/ MAM/ DPO/ RMP/ ACC

FWSS Staff

MA. FE E. VILLAMORA

OIC-FWSS

EDNA L. JUANILLO

(Officer-In-Charge)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)

Impact Assessment for Agriculture

Impact Assessment for Agriculture full document

Preface

The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1

where:

W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i

where:

i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.

Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

PERCINTELE RANK INTERPRETATION
> 80 Potential for Flood Damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages
Agroclimatic / Crop Condition Assessment For October 2017

OVERVIEW

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay had just begun in most parts of the country. Good to normal yield is expected in CAR, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Tayabas, Ambulong, MIMAROPA, Bicol region, Bohol, Mactan, Catbalogan, Tacloban, Northern Mindanao, and ARMM. In contrary, below normal yield may be anticipated in Cagayan Valley, Panay Island, and Dumaguete. Meanwhile, in some parts of the country sun drying and rice stocking activities is still in progress.

Assessment of rainfall for the month of October showed that near to above normal rainfall conditions were experienced in most parts of the country, except in Benguet, Ifugao, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya which experienced below normal rainfall conditions.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), southwest (SW) monsoon, low pressure areas (LPAs), thunderstorms, northeast (NE) monsoon and the passage of three (3) tropical cyclones (TCs), namely: Severe Tropical Storm (STS) “Odette” (October 11-14), Typhoon (TY) “Paolo” (October 16-21), and Severe Tropical Storm (STS) “Quedan” (October 25-28). Among these 3 TCs, only STS “Odette” directly hit the country. STS “Odette” made landfall over Sta. Ana, Cagayan and brought moderate to heavy rains in the western section of the country, including Metro Manila. It caused flooding and landslides over regions I, II, Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR) and IV-B, based on the report of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

REGIONS

Harvesting of late-planted lowland palay had just begun across the region; near normal to normal yield is anticipated due to the sufficient moisture available from planting to maturity

Harvesting of late-planted lowland 1st palay now started; good to normal yield is expected, due to adequate moisture and normal conditions experienced by the crops throughout the entire growing season.

Below normal yield is anticipated for the harvestable, July-planted lowland palay due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during the critical stage of growth and development.

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay had just started all over the region; near normal to normal yield is estimated in Zambales because crops experienced sufficient moisture from planting to maturity. On the other hand, in Cabanatuan, inadequate moisture supply during the month led to a below normal yield for the maturing crops.

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay in Ambulong and Tayabas had just begun. Near normal to above normal yield is anticipated in those areas because of the significantly adequate rainfall experienced by the crops in the entire growing season.

Ample amount of moisture as well as sufficient sunshine received in the last decade of the month favored the harvestable, July-planted lowland palay across the region; good to normal yield is anticipated.

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay commences. Yield is expected to be near normal to normal due to good weather and sufficient moisture experienced by the crops for the entire growing season.

Harvesting of late-planted lowland had just begun across the region. Yield is anticipated to be below normal because of moisture stress experienced by the crops during its critical stage of growth and development.

Harvesting of late-planted upland palay commences in Mactan; near-normal to above normal yield is expected because the crops experienced sufficient moisture from planting to maturity. Likewise, enough rainfall received during the month benefited the flowering July-planted lowland palay in Mactan.

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay in Eastern Visayas is now in progress. Good to near normal yield is expected because crops experienced insufficient moisture during the vegetative stage, although the crops recovered in the last stages of growth and development.

In Zamboanga del sur, planting of lowland palay is totally hampered because of very low rainfall received in that particular area last July, that is why no harvest will be expected this season.

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay had just begun. Near normal to above normal yield is expected because crops experienced normal crop conditions in the entire growing season.

Sun drying and rice stocking activities for the late-planted upland palay are in their final stages.

Due to the inadequacy of the required moisture for planting activities in the region, farming activities are all hampered in the area, hence, no harvest is expected for the season.

Post-harvesting activities for the late-planted lowland palay had just begun all over the region. Sun drying and rice stocking activities shall follow.

Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay has started in most parts of the region. Good yield may be expected this season because crops have recovered from previous stressed conditions.

For Particulars, please contact:

THELMA A. CINCO


Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)

PAGASA-DOST

Telefax No.: 434-58-82