Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: February 20, 2020
Week Validity: February 20 - 26, 2020


Rainfall deficit of up to 60mm is likely in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 25mm in Isabela, Cagayan, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Catanduanes, Masbate, central Visayas, northern Mindanao and CARAGA while less likely for the rest of the country.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except CARAGA which will likely receive more than 50mm of rainfall during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2020
Week Validity: February 20 - 26, 2020


Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas and eastern Mindanao while slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced for the remaining parts of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: February 20, 2020
Week Validity: February 20 - 26, 2020


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence suggest less likelihood of precipitation in CARAGA during the forecast period. Northeasterly winds affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2020
Week Validity: February 27 - March 2, 2020


Rainfall deficit of up to 40mm is likely in most parts of the country during the forecast period .

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 25mm in eastern Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except Bukidnon which will likely receive more than 50mm of rainfall during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2020
Week Validity: February 27 - March 2, 2020


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced most parts of the country especially in western Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2020
Week Validity: February 27 - March 2, 2020


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence show likelihood of precipitation in Cagayan, Isabela and CARAGA. Northeasterly winds affecting most parts of Luzon while easterlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2020
Week Validity: February 17 - 23, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some parts of eastern and south western Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas is expected while Luzon will likely receive below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2020
Week Validity: February 24 - March 1, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2020
Week Validity: March 2 - 15, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2020
Week Validity: February 17 - 25, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906