Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: April 01, 2020
Week Validity: April 02-April 08, 2020


Rainfall deficit of 30-50 mm is most likely in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

50-95% probability for rainfall exceeding 25mm in Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, Northern Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula, while less probability for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period except in western Mindanao where 40-70% chance is expected.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: April 01, 2020
Week Validity: April 02-April 08, 2020


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: April 01, 2020
Week Validity: April 02-April 08, 2020


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence show less likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Localized thunderstorm is likely in northern Mindanao. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: April 01, 2020
Week Validity: April 09-15, 2020


Rainfall deficit of 10-40 mm is most likely in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

60-95% probability for rainfall exceeding 25mm in most parts of western Luzon and western Mindanao while the rest of the country, 30-60% chance during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50 mm in most parts of the country except in some areas in CAR and northern Mindanao where 60-90% chance is expected during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: April 01, 2020
Week Validity: April 09-15, 2020


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in some parts of northwestern Luzon and western Mindanao where average temperature is expected during the forecast period .

Initial Condition: April 01, 2020
Week Validity: April 09-15, 2020


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence show less likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Localized thunderstorm is likely in western Mindanao. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 29, 2020
Week Validity: March 30-Apr 05, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in the northern parts of Luzon where near to above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 29, 2020
Week Validity: April 06-12, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in Mindoro and southern Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 29, 2020
Week Validity: April 13-26, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA


Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in central and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
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Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected with some patches of above normal rainfall in eastern Luzon, eastern and central Visayas and central Mindanao.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected with some patches of above normal rainfall in eastern Luzon, eastern and central Visayas and central Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: March 29, 2020
Week Validity: March 30-Apr 07, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in central Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906