Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: June 28, 2020
Week Validity: June 29-Jul 05, 2020


Increase of rainfall of 10-50 mm in northern Luzon and in northern Mindanao is expected while rainfall deficit of 10-80mm for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except in eastern parts of Isabela and Davao Region during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Luzon (except Isabela, Pangasinan and Zambales), Samar provinces, western parts of Visayas and Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



High probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in Cordillera Region, Ilocos Norte, Mindoro and in northern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.


High probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in Cordillera Region, Mindoro and in northern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

30-85% probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in Cordillera Region and Mindoro while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: June 28, 2020
Week Validity: June 29-Jul 05, 2020


Average to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: June 28, 2020
Week Validity: June 29-Jul 05, 2020


Upper level (200 hPa) Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in southern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: June 28, 2020
Week Validity: Jul 06-12, 2020



Rainfall deficit of up to 30-100mm is expected in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country is expected except in eastern parts of Luzon, central parts of Visayas and eastern parts of Mindanao and North Coatabato during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of western Luzon, Mindoro and in northern Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



30-75% probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in Cordillera Region, Mindoro and in northern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: June 28, 2020
Week Validity: Jul 06-12, 2020


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in western parts of Luzon and Visayas while average to slightly warmer for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: June 28, 2020
Week Validity: Jul 06-12, 2020


Upper level (200 hPa) Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of Luzon, central Visayas and most parts of Mindanao. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 21, 2020
Week Validity: June 22-28, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in northern and eastern Luzon and in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Palawan and western Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao is expected while Luzon will likely receive below normal rainfall


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 21, 2020
Week Validity: June 29-Jul 05, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in northern parts of Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in eastern Visayas, CARAGA and in western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Leyte and western Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 21, 2020
Week Validity: Jul 06-19, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas and CARAGA is expected while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas is expected while Mindanao will likely receive below normal rainfall


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 21, 2020
Week Validity: June 22-30, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in northern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected with some patches of below normal rainfall in Mindanao.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906