Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: November 25, 2020
Week Validity: November 26 - December 2, 2020


Rainfall deficit of 20-40mm in most parts Northern and Central Luzon, NCR, Cavite, Batangas, Mindoro provinces Samar island, Bohol, CARAGA, Northern Mindanao and parts of Zamboanga peninsula is expected while increase of rainfall of 20-40 mm for the remaining parts of the country

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except Ilocos region, most parts of Central Luzon(except Aurora), Batangas, Cavite and NCR during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Cagayan Valley region, Quezon, Southern Luzon, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country except eastern parts of Cagayan and Isabela, Capiz and Catanduanes were 100mm of rainfall will be likely during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 25, 2020
Week Validity: November 26 - December 2, 2020


Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature is expected in most parts of Luzon, central Visayas, Davao Region and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have average to slightly warmer temperature.

Initial Condition: November 25, 2020
Week Validity: November 26 - December 2, 2020


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of Luzon, Western Visayas and most parts of Mindanao. Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon while easterlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 25, 2020
Week Validity: December 3 - December 9, 20209


Increase of rainfall of up to 90mm in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, SOCSARGEN & Zamboanga peninsula while decrease in rainfall up to 40 mm for the remaining parts of Mindanao is expected during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except Ilocos region, most parts of Central Luzon(except Aurora), Batangas, Cavite and NCR during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Cagayan Valley region, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Southern Luzon, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, mosts parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country except eastern parts of Cagayan and Isabela and Catanduanes were 100mm of rainfall will be likely during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 25, 2020
Week Validity: December 3 - December 9, 20209


Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature is expected in Western Luzon, Central Luzon(except Aurora), MIMAROPA, most of Visayas and Mindanao(except Davao del Norte, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat) while the rest of the country will likely have average to slightly warmer temperature.

Initial Condition: November 25, 2020
Week Validity: December 3 - December 9, 20209


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Northeast monsoon affecting Luzon and eastern Visayas, while easterlies affecting Mindanao during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 22, 2020
Week Validity: Nov 23-29, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Camarines Sur and most parts of Mindanao is expected while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: ovember 22, 2020
Week Validity: Nov 30-Dec 6, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except with some patches of below normal in north eastern Luzon.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except with some patches of below normal in north eastern Luzon.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts northern & southern Luzon, Bicol Region, eastern Visayas and Davao del Norte while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: ovember 22, 2020
Week Validity: Dec 7-20, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except with some patches of below normal in southern Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except with some patches of below normal in southern Mindanao.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: ovember 22, 2020
Week Validity: Nov 23-Dec 01, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except IN northern parts of Luzon and Sarangani where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except IN northern parts of Luzon and Sarangani where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906