Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: November 7, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 7-13, 2019


Increased of rainfall up to 60 mm is likely in most parts of Luzon and Visayas. However deficit of 20 to 40 mm is most likely in Palawan, Samar, eastern Samar, Northern Leyte and Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 25mm in most parts of the country while less probable in Southern Palawan, Davao region and southwestern Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 50mm in Northern Luzon, Aurora, Quezon, Southern Luzon, Mindoro, Masbate, Cebu and Bohol. While less likely in the remaining parts of the country during the forecast period.



High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 100mm in CAR, Cagayan, Isabela and Catanduanes. While less likely in the remaining parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 150mm in Kalinga, Mountain province, Ifugao and Isabela. While less likely in the remaining parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country except Mountain province which will likely received more than 200mm of rain during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 7, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 7-13, 2019


Slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in Luzon, Mindoro, Western and central Mindanao while near to slightly warmer than normal for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 7, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 7-13, 2019


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence (Brown shaded color) suggest likelihood of heavy precipitation in Cagayan and Zamboanga peninsula. Moreover Visayas and Mindanao will likely received precipitation during the forecast period. Northeasterly winds affecting Luzon while westerly winds affecting Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: November 7, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 14-20, 2019


Increased of rainfall up to 40 mm is likely in most parts of Luzon, Mindoro and Panay island. However deficit of 10 to 20 mm is most likely in Southern Luzon, Palawan, most of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 25mm in most parts of the country while less probable in central Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 50mm for most of Luzon, Mindoro, Antique, Masbate Northern Mindanao, While less likely in the remaining parts of the country during the forecast period.



Significant probability for rainfall exceeding 100mm in CAR, Cagayan and Isabela. While less likely in the remaining parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200 mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 7, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 14-20, 2019


Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be in most parts of the country except Western and Central which will likely experience slightly cooler than normal surface air temperature during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 7, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 14-20, 2019


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence (Brown shaded color) suggest likelihood of heavy precipitation in Cagayan and Isabela, while the rest of Luzon and Mindanao will likely received precipitation during the forecast period. A cyclonic wind pattern may affect affect the Philippines during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Nov 4, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 5-11. 2019

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Luzon, Region 8 and southwestern parts of Mindanao. The rest of the country, below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Luzon, Region 8 and southwestern parts of Mindanao. The rest of the country, below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving near normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in northern and southern Luzon, and southern Mindanao were below normal rainfall is likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Nov 4, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 12-18, 2019

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in central parts of Luzon , Reg IV and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country may experience near normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon and Visayas while near normal rainfall in Mindanao.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon and Visayas while near normal rainfall in Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Nov 4, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 19-Dec 02, 2019

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving near normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in northeastern parts of Luzon and southern Mindanao were near normal rainfall is most likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Nov 4, 2019
Week Validity: Nov 5-13, 2019

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving near normal rainfall in Luzon and eastern Visayas expected. The rest of the country, below normal rainfall is likely.

Probability of receiving near normal rainfall in Luzon and eastern Visayas expected. The rest of the country, below normal rainfall is likely.

Probability of receiving near normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in in the eastern parts of Visayas were near normal rainfall is likely.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906