Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: October 6, 2019
Week Validity: October 7 - 13, 2019


Rainfall deficit of 40-60 mm is most likely in most parts of the country especially in Northern Luzon during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 25mm in Visayas, Bukidnon, Mindoro, and Palawan, while less probable in most parts of Luzon and Mindanao area.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Western Visayas and Mindoro while less probable in Luzon and Mindanao area.

Initial Condition: October 6, 2019
Week Validity: October 7 - 13, 2019


Slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in Cagayan and Isabela, while slightly warmer than normal temperature will likely be experience in Bataan, Palawan, Leyte, and Eastern Mindanao.

Initial Condition: October 6, 2019
Week Validity: October 7 - 13, 2019


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence (Brown shaded color) indicates possible occurrence of precipitation in the eastern part of Luzon with winds from the northeast are forecasted to affect the north-eastern part of Luzon during the forecasted period.

Initial Condition: October 6, 2019
Week Validity: October 14-20, 2019


Rainfall deficit of 20-40 mm is most likely in most parts of the country especially in western Visayas and western Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probabilities for rainfall exceeding 25mm in most parts of the country except in western Mindanao.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of country except in CAR and most parts of northern Mindanao

Initial Condition: October 6, 2019
Week Validity: October 14-20, 2019


Slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of Luzon, while slightly warmer than normal temperature will likely be experience in Palawan, Leyte and Eastern and Southern Mindanao.

Initial Condition: October 6, 2019
Week Validity: October 14-20, 2019


Low level (850 hPa) Divergence (Brown shaded color) indicates possible occurrence of precipitation in the north-eastern part of Luzon and Southern Mindanao with winds coming from the west affecting Luzon and winds coming from the west affecting Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 09, 2019
Week Validity: October 10-16, 2019

GCM

PCA

CCA


Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Rest of Luzon Above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except for some patches of above normal in Luzon and Visayas .

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except for some patches of above normal in Luzon and Visayas .


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 09, 2019
Week Validity: October 17-23, 2019

GCM

PCA

CCA


Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Rest of Luzon above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Rest of Luzon above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall is expected in eastern parts of Luzon, most parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Rest of Luzon above normal rainfall is likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 09, 2019
Week Validity: Oct 24-Nov 6, 2019

GCM

PCA

CCA


Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some parts of eastern Mindanao.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and southern parts of Mindanao is expected . Rest of Mindanao, expect above normal.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and southern parts of Mindanao is expected . Rest of Mindanao, expect above normal.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 09, 2019
Week Validity: Oct 10-18, 2019

GCM

PCA

CCA


Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Rest of Luzon above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Luzon, most parts of Visayas, and southern parts of Mindanao is expected . Rest of the country expect above normal.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in Luzon and most parts of Visayas while below normal rainfall in Mindanao is expected.

Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906