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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: February 24, 2021
Week Validity: Feb 25- Mar 03, 2021
Rainfall deficit of 40-80mm is expected in Isabela, Mt. Province, Mindoro, Samar Provinces and up to 100mm is expected in northern half of Mindanao.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of Cagayan, Isabela, Cordillera Region, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Eastern Visayas, Leyte provinces, Aklan, Capiz, most parts of eastern Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula while less likely for the rest of the country Norte during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 24, 2021
Week Validity: Feb 25- Mar 03, 2021
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature is expected in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 24, 2021
Week Validity: Feb 25- Mar 03, 2021
Upper and low level Divergence suggest less likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country. Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 24, 2021
Week Validity: March 04-10, 2021
Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm in most parts of Luzon & Visayas and up to 100mm is expected in Mindanao.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in eastern part of Isabela, most parts of Bicol region, Eastern Visayas Leyte provinces, Aklan, Capiz and most parts of Mindanao (except Davao Region) while less likely for the rest of the country Norte during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except in Catanduanes and Eastern Samar where there is 80-95% chance during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 24, 2021
Week Validity: March 04-10, 2021
Average to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature is expected in Isabela, Quirino, Aurora and Bicol Region while average to slightly cooler than average temperature for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 24, 2021
Week Validity: March 04-10, 2021
Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in Extreme Northern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Northeast Monsoon affecting most parts of Luzon and eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: January 4-10, 2021
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in CAR, La Union & Ilocos Sur where above normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: Jan 11-17, 2021
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and eastern parts of Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: Jan 18-31, 2020
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: Jan 4-12-, 2021
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in CAR, La Union & Ilocos Sur where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in CAR, La Union & Ilocos Sur where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906