Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Sep 24-30, 2020


Increase of rainfall of 40-80mm in Bukidnon, Lanao provinces and North Cotabato is expected during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts the country is expected during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas & Samar provinces, Northern Mindanao, Lanao provinces, South Cotabato and Zamboanga Peninsula while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



High probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in Cordillera Region, Occ. Mindoro, Bukidnon, Lanao provinces, North Cotabato and Misamis Occ. is expected while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

70-95% probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in Mt. Province, Ifugao, Mindoro and Bukidnon is expected while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

70-95% probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in Mt. Province, Ifugao and Mindoro is expected while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Sep 24-30, 2020


Slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts Luzon and Visayas (warmer in Isabela) while average surface air temperature in Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Sep 24-30, 2020


Upper level (200hPa) Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of northern, eastern and southern Luzon and MIMAROPA. Southwest Monsoon affecting western Luzon while easterlies affecting most parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Oct 01-07, 2020


Rainfall deficit of 40-60mm in most parts of the country is expected while increase of up to 40mm in Central Luzon during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts the country is expected during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in western and Central parts of Luzon, Mindoro, Bukidnon, Lanao provinces and Zamboanga del Sur is expected while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



60-95% probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in Cordillera Region while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Oct 01-07, 2020


Slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts Luzon and Visayas while average surface air temperature in Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Oct 01-07, 2020


Upper level (200hPa) Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of northern and central Luzon, central Visayas and most parts of Mindanao. Southwest Monsoon affecting northwestern Luzon while easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Sep 24-30, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Generally near normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.

Generally near normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, part of central Luzon, Batangas, western Visayas and some patches in Mindanao. The rest of Luzon will likely receive near normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Oct 01-07, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in most parts of central and southern Luzon, Samar provinces and SOCSARGEN where below normal rainfall is more likely.
.


Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in most parts of central and southern Luzon, Samar provinces and SOCSARGEN where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving near normal rainfall in some parts of the country is expected except in some parts of central and southern Luzon, Samar provinces, central Visayas and some parts of Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely. .


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Oct 08-21, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in most parts of Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 23, 2020
Week Validity: Sep 24-Oct02, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in Batangas, Mindoro, Marinduque, Antique and southern Cotabato where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country is expected except in northern Luzon, Zambales, Marinduque, Batangas, central and western Visayas, CARAGA, northern Mindanao and Davao region while near normal rainfall is more likely for the remaining parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country is expected except in northern Luzon, Zambales, Marinduque, Batangas, central and western Visayas, CARAGA, northern Mindanao and Davao region while near normal rainfall is more likely for the remaining parts of the country.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906