Press Statement on Typhoon "KAMMURI"
29 November 2019
There are posts currently circulating online being shared in various social networking services stating the Typhoon “KAMMURI” will be hitting the country as a “Super Typhoon”. To prevent unwanted panic on the part of the public, we would like to make some clarifications.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) OF THE United States uses 1 minute as wind averaging period for the estimation of maximum sustained winds near the center (MSW), while PAGASA and other meteorological centers in the Western North Pacific use the WMO recommended 10-minute averaging period. Shorter wind averaging periods yield higher wind estimates compared to longer averaging period. As such, MSW from JWTC are generally higher than PAGASA and other meteorological centers.
Meteorological centers use different thresholds for classifying tropical cyclones as Super Typhoon. Since May 2015, PAGASA classifies a tropical cyclone as Super Typhoon when 10-minute MSW exceeds 220 km/h. Meanwhile, JTWC’s Super Typhoon, when converted from 1 to 10-minute averaging, has MSW exceeding 185 km/h. This means that on a 10-minute averaging, JWTC has lover threshold for classifying Super Typhoon than PAGASA.
Based on latest available data, Typhoon “KAMMURI” (local name: Typhoon “TISOY”) is less likely to reach Super Typhoon category at this time, but this scenario is not yet ruled out as the Typhoon is forecast to steadily intensify before making landfall in Southern Luzon. Official information on this Typhoon is being released by PAGASA through the following official accounts:
YouTube: DOST-PAGASA WEATHER REPORT
The public is advised to undertake precautionary measures, continue monitoring for updates and remain vigilant against unofficial information coming from unverified sources.
ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D.
Chief, Weather Division
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