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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: March 23, 2025
Week Validity: March 24 - 30, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-40mm is the eastern and southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and Central Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 23, 2025
Week Validity: March 24 - 30, 2025
Near to slightly warmer average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: March 23, 2025
Week Validity: March 24 - 30, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: March 23, 2025
Week Validity: March 31 - April 06, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-40mm is expected over Palawan, some parts of Visayas and most of Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 23, 2025
Week Validity: March 31 - April 06, 2025
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: March 23, 2025
Week Validity: March 31 - April 06, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 20, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 21-27, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Antique while Palawan and the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Antique while Isabela, Palawan, Bicol Region, some areas in central Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 20, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 28- Apr 03, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern, central, and southern Luzon where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Mindoro, Bicol Region Central Visayas, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern part of Northern Luzon, most parts of Central Luzon and Bicol Region, Mindoro, Antique, and most of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occ., and Lanao provinces will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 20, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 4-17, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Aklan while Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 20, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 21-29, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Polillo Island, Marinduque, and Antique while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Pampanga, Polillo Island, Marinduque, and Antique while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.