PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: January 19, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025

Rainfall deficit of 20-70mm is expected in most parts of southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao .

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over the eastern parts of Cagayan and Isabela, Northern & eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, and western Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Apayao, the rest Cagayan and Isabela, Catanduanes, Capiz, southern Palawan and the rest of Mindanao;

•Low to Moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over Eastern Samar;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: January 19, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025

Warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: January 19, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 20-26, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: January 19, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 02, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 10-40mm is expected in some areas in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Visayas, and eastern Midanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Batanes, Apayao, Cagayan, eastern parts of Isabela, Bicol Region, Panay Island and Negros Island, most parts of Eastern and Central Visayas and Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Isabela, southern Luzon, and the rest of Visayas;

•Low to Moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over Batanes, the easternmost part of Cagayan and Isabela, eastern portion of Bicol Region, northern portion of Panay Island and Negros Occidental, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Eastern Samar;

•Low to moderate over Eastern Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: January 19, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 02, 2025

Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in Luzon while near to slightly warmer in Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: January 19, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 02, 2025

Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 16, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 17-23, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 16, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 24-30, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 16, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 31- Feb 13, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Central Luzon, CALABARZON, Mindoro, Panay Island, northern parts of Negros Island, and Masbate where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Panay Island, and northern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.