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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: May 11, 2025
Week Validity: May 12-18, 2025
Rainfall deficit of 20-70mm is expected in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas, and Bukidnon while 10-30mm increase of rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: May 11, 2025
Week Validity: May 12-18, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon and western Visayas while near to slightly warmer temperature is expected for the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: May 11, 2025
Week Validity: May 12-18, 2025
Southwest windflow affecting some areas in western Philippines. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: May 11, 2025
Week Validity: May 16-22, 2025
Increase in rainfall of 20-60mm is expected in most parts of Cagayan Valley, Quezon, Palawan, Bicol Region, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while 10-30mm rainfall deficit is expected for the rest of Luzon.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: May 11, 2025
Week Validity: May 16-22, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon while near average temperature is expected in Visayas and Mindanao.
Initial Condition: May 11, 2025
Week Validity: May 16-22, 2025
Southwest windflow affecting some parts of Palawan. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 08, 2025
Week Validity: May 09-15, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern & eastern Mindanao while southern parts of Caraga and Ilocos Region and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and some areas in northern Mindanao while Bicol Region and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and some areas in northern Mindanao while most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 08, 2025
Week Validity: May 16-22, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 08, 2025
Week Validity: May 23- Jun 05, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected .
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, some areas in Bicol Region, Antique, Negros Island, Zamboanga Peninsula and northeastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Norte & Sur, Cagayan, CAR, southern Isabela, Miondoro, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and northern & eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 08, 2025
Week Validity: May 09-17, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Bukidnon and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Cagayan Valley, most parts of central and southern Luzon, western Visayas, northern Leyte and some areas in northern Mindanao while Bicol Region, Samar provinces and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas and some areas in northern Mindanao while some areas in Luzon, Samar provinces and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.