PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: December 04, 2024

Week Validity: December 05 - December 11, 2025

Increase in rainfall of up to 100mm is expected over most parts of Visayas, 20-60mm over Bicol region, Oriental Mindoro and some parts of Northern Mindanao; while the rest of Luzon and most parts of Mindanao will likely have 20-60mm rainfall deficit

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Quezon, Bicol Region, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon and Davao Region.

•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Quezon, Bicol Region, Marinduque, Romblon, and most of Visayas;

•Moderate to high over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, northern Aurora, the rest of Southern Luzon, the southern portion of NIR, and the northern section of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over the eastern section of Bicol region;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, and Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over the Bicol region, Eastern Visayas, Capiz, Aklan, the northern portions of Negros Occidental and Cebu, Leyte, and Samar Provinces;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Southern Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over the rest of the county.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low to moderate over Bicol region and Visayas;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: December 04, 2024

Week Validity: December 05 - December 11, 2025

Slightly cooler to than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon while Near average to slightly warmer than average temperature is likely in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: December 04, 2024

Week Validity: December 05 - December 11, 2025

Northeast Monsoon are expected to affect the Eastern Luzon and Bicol Region. Easterlies are expected to affect the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: December 04, 2024

Week Validity: December 05 - December 11, 2025

Increase in rainfall of 20-60mm is expected in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Northern Samar, Aklan, and Capiz while 20-60mm rainfall deficit is likely over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over the eastern parts of Luzon, Apayao, Or. Mindoro, Palawan, Marinduque, Masbate, Samar provinces, Aklan, and Capiz.

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over the eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela and Bicol Region, Polillo Isl. Northern and Eastern Samar, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, and Dinagat Island;

•Moderate to high over the eastern portion of CAR, the rest of Eastern and Southern Luzon and Visayas

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over the eastern most section of Isabela and Catanduanes;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Eastern Luzon, Eastern Visayas, and Dinagat Island;

•Low over the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over the eastern section of Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over the rest of the county.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: December 04, 2024

Week Validity: December 05 - December 11, 2025

Near to Slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: December 04, 2024

Week Validity: December 05 - December 11, 2025

Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Northern Luzon. Easterlies are expected to affect the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2025

Week Validity: Dec 04-10, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Batangas, Mindoro, southern Palawan, western and central Visayas and some areas in eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, Eastern Samar, Leyte provinces, part of Zamboanga Sibugay and Del Norte, while some areas in Bicol Region, the rest of Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, most parts of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas, and some areas in eastern Mindanao while some areas in northern Luzon, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2025

Week Validity: Dec 11-17, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon and western Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2025

Week Validity: Dec 18-31, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern parts of Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan, Pangasinan, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and some areas in western Visayas will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern parts of Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan, Pangasinan, Bicol Region, Eastern Samar, Central Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2025

Week Validity: Dec 04-12, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Mindoro, southern Palawan, western and central Visayas where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in Bicol Region, Central Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in Western and Central Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.