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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: December 19, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 20-26, 2024
Increase of Rainfall of up to 80mm in eastern and southern Luzon, Visayas, Bukidnon and western Mindanao; 10-30mm for the rest of Luzon while 10-30mm rainfall deficit in Leyte provinces and eastern Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: December 19, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 20-26, 2024
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon while slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature over Visayas and Mindanao.
Initial Condition: December 19, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 20-26, 2024
Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: December 19, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 27- Jan 02, 2024
Increase of Rainfall of 20-60mm is most likely in most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: December 19, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 27- Jan 02, 2024
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: December 19, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 27- Jan 02, 2024
Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 28, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 05, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in northern and southern Luzon and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Panay island while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 28, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 06-12, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern part of Northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Lanao provinces while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Bukidnon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 28, 2024
Week Validity: Dec 13-26, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro, southern Palawan, Eastern and Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, northern and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro,, Eastern Visayas, and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 28, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 07, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro, and some areas in Caraga Region while some areas in southern Luzon, Bicol Region, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Panay island and northern part of Negros Island while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.