Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: May 18, 2022
Week Validity: May 19-25, 2022


Increase of rainfall of 40-80mmm in Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Southern parts of Mindanao while rainfall deficit of 40-80mm in CAR and Mindoro Provinces, Samar provinces and northern part of Mindanao during the forecast period .

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the Northern and Central Luzon and most parts of Mindanao during the forecast period.



Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country except Ilocos and Codillera region during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2022
Week Validity: May 19 - 25, 2022


Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Luzon, Slightly cooler in Visayas and average to slightly warmer temperature in Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2022
Week Validity: May 19-25, 2022


Southwesterly windflow is forecasted to affect most parts of the Luzon and western parts of Visayas and Mindanao and Easterlies to affect eastern part of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period

Initial Condition: May 18, 2022
Week Validity: May 26 – June 1, 2022


Increase of rainfall of 60-100mm in most parts of Luzon and Western Visayas while rainfall deficit of 40-80mm in Ifugao, Mountain Province and most parts of Mindanao during the forecast period .

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Luzon except Palawan and Bicol Region while less likely for the rest of the county during the forecast period.



High probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of Ilocos region, Cordillera region, and most parts of Central Luzon less likely for the rest of the county during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country except Pangasinan and Zambales during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2022
Week Validity: May 26 – June 1, 2022


Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country while average to slightly warmer in Aurora, Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2022
Week Validity: May 26 – June 1, 2022


Westerlies to Southwesterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 11, 2022
Week Validity: May 12-18, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Samar Provinces while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon, Visayas while Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 11, 2022
Week Validity: May 19-25, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts the country except in Northern Luzon where above normal rainfall is expected during the forecast period.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, in Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts the country except with patches of below normal rainfall during the forecast period.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 11, 2022
Week Validity: May 26- Jun 08, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts the country except with patches of below normal rainfall in northern Luzon and western Mindanao during the forecast period.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts the country except with patches of below normal rainfall in northern Luzon and western Mindanao during the forecast period.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 11, 2022
Week Validity: May 12-20, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Samar Provinces while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon, Visayas while Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906