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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 11-17, 2024
Increase of rainfall of more than 50mm will be likely in most parts of northern, central, and southern Luzon while rainfall deficit of 10-60mm is expected in Mindoro, Palawan Quezon, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 11-17, 2024
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 11-17, 2024
Easterlies will likely affect most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-24, 2024
Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm is most likely in most parts of the country except in some areas in Or. Mindoro, and Capiz where there is 10-25mm increase of rainfall.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-24, 2024
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-24, 2024
Easterlies will likely affect most parts of the country during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 5-11, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Panay Island, northern Samar, and some areas in extreme northern Luzon, central Visayas and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Panay Island, northern Samar, and some areas in western Luzon, and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 12-18, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Samar provinces and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas, and northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Negros Island, eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Negros Island, Samar provinces, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 19- Dec 02, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and southern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Caraga Region and northern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely ..
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 05-13, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Region, Apayao, Cagayan, central Luzon, Bicol Region, western Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is more likely .
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Region, Apayao, central Luzon, Bicol Region, western Visayas, Caraga Region and Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is more likely .