PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: February 08, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 09-15, 2026

Increase in rainfall of 10-20mm is expected in most parts of Northern & Central Luzon and western Mindanao and 20-100mm for the rest of Luzon and most parts of Visayas while rainfall deficit of 10-30mm in some areas in northeastern Luzon and for the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over the eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.

•Moderate to high over the rest of eastern and southern Luzon, and BASULTA.

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, the northeastern section of Panay Island, the northern portions of NIR and Cebu, Siargao Isl., and Dinagat Province;

•Moderate to high over Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Visayas and Eastern and Central parts of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao and Southern Luzon;

• Low over the rest of Luzon;

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over Northern and Eastern Samar;

•Moderate to high over Bicol Region, Aklan, Capiz, the rest of Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Province, and Siargao Isl.;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Caraga

•Low over the rest of country;

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over Sorsogon and Samar Provinces;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Bicol region and Eastern Visayas, Dinagat, and Siargao Isl.;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: February 08, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 09-15, 2026

Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: February 08, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 09-15, 2026

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon. While Easterlies are expected to affect the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: February 08, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 16-22, 2026

Rainfall deficit of 10-400mm is expected in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and Bukidnon while increase in rainfall of 10-30mm is more likely for the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Eastern Visayas, Aklan, and most parts of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Eastern Luzon, Palawan and the rest of Visayas.

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Dinagat, Surigao Provinces, and Davao Oriental;

•Moderate to high over the rest of eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao;

•Low over Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Dinagat, Surigao Provinces, and Davao Oriental;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over Dinagat province and Siargao Isl;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country

Initial Condition: February 08, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 16-22, 2026

Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: February 08, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 16-22, 2026

Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Extreme Northern Luzon. Easterlies to affect the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 04, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 05-11, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern & southern Luzon, Masbate, Leyte provinces, and Western Visayas while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern & southern Luzon, Masbate, Western Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao while northeastern Mindanao, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, some areas in southern Luzon, Western Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas will likely have above normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 04, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 12-18, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Negros Island, Central Visayas, and some areas in northwestern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, western part of central Visayas, and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Samar provinces, Negros Island, western part of central Visayas & Panay Island, and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 04, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 19- Mar 04, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in northern Luzon.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 04, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 05-13, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Central Luzon, Samar provinces, and most parts of while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern part of Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Eastern Samar, Leyte provinces and some areas in eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southern part of Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Panay Island, Eastern Samar, Leyte provinces, and some areas in eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.