Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: June 20, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 21-27, 2024


Rainfall deficit of more than 100mm in CAR, Ilocos Sur and La Union; 20-90mm for the rest of Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao while 40-80mm increase of rainfall for the rest of Mindanao .

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high over most of the country;
Moderate to high over the eastern section of Cagayan Valley.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

High to very high over most of Mindanao and the western section of Southern Luzon;
Moderate to high over Visayas, NCR, the rest of western Luzon, and the rest of Southern Luzon;
Low to moderate over Cagayan Valley.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low to moderate to high over Palawan, Mindanao, and Western Visayas;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: June 20, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 21-27, 2024


Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in southeastern part of Mindanao where slightly cooler temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: June 20, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 21-27, 2024


Southwest Monsoon affecting western sections of the country. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: June 20, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 28- Jul 04, 2024


Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high over most parts of the country

Probability to Exceed 50mm

High to very high over CAR, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Bukidnon, Lanao provinces, and Zamboanga del Sur;
Moderate to high over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: June 20, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 28- Jul 04, 2024


Near to cooler surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in central Luzon and some areas in eastern Luzon where slightly warmer than average temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: June 20, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 28- Jul 04, 2024


Easterlies affecting most parts of the country .



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 18, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 19-25, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Caraga Region while the rest of Luzon, Panay Island and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and eastern Visayas while Isabela, Mindoro, Palawan, the rest of Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and eastern Visayas while Isabela, Mindoro, Palawan, the rest of Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 18, 2024
Week Validity: June 26-23, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern and central Luzon and some areas southern Luzon, Samar provinces and Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern & western Luzon, and western Visayas where above normal rainfall is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 18, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 03-16, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southwestern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, and eastern Visayas where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Luzon, and Panay Island where below normal rainfall is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 18, 2024
Week Validity: Jun 19-27, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and Caraga Region while most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Negros Island, Cebu, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Negros Island, Cebu, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph