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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: June 06, 2023
Week Validity: June 07 - 13, 2023
Rainfall deficit of up to 50mm is expected in most parts of the country while more than 50mm increase of rainfall is expected Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro Occidental, Bukidnon and most of Eastern Mindanao.
High to a very high probability to exceed 25mm of rainfall in most parts of the country except for a moderate to high probability over the Bicol region, Southern Quezon, and Eastern and Central Visayas.
High to a very high probability to exceed 50mm of rainfall in most parts of Central and Northern Luzon and Bukidnon; moderate to high likelihood over the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas and the rest of Mindanao while low likelihood over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
Moderate to high probability to exceed 100mm of rainfall over the western sections of Central and Northern Luzon while low likelihood over the rest of the country.
Low probability to exceed 150mm of rainfall over the rest of the country.
Low probability to exceed 200mm of rainfall over the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: June 06, 2023
Week Validity: June 07 - 13, 2023
Average to slightly cooler than surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is forecasted in Isabela, Samar provinces and most parts of Mindanao.
Initial Condition: June 06, 2023
Week Validity: June 07 - 13, 2023
Southwest Monsoon is forecasted to prevail in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: June 06, 2023
Week Validity: June 14 - 20, 2023
Rainfall increase of 40-80mm is expected in most parts of the country except in Mindoro Oriental and Palawan were a deficit of up to 20mm is likely.
High to a very high probability to exceed 25mm of rainfall in most parts of the country.
High to a very high probability to exceed 50mm of rainfall in the western sections of Central and Northern Luzon while moderate to high likelihood over the rest of the country.
Moderate probability to exceed 100mm of rainfall over the western section of Central and Northern Luzon while low likelihood for the rest of the country.
Low probability to exceed 150mm of rainfall over the rest of the country.
Low probability to exceed 200mm of rainfall over the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: June 06, 2023
Week Validity: June 14 - 20, 2023
Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: June 06, 2023
Week Validity: June 14 - 20, 2023
Southwest Monsoon is forecasted to prevail in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 31, 2023
Week Validity: Jun 01-07, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Palawan and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, western Visayas, Leyte provinces a and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Zamboanga peninsula will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 31, 2023
Week Validity: June 08-14, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and CARAGA Region while southern Palawan and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in Ilocos & Bicol Region, western part of central Luzon, most parts of Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in central & southern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, Panay Island and southwestern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 31, 2023
Week Validity: Jun 15-28, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas of below normal rainfall in eastern & southern Luzon, eastern Visayas and central Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas of below normal rainfall in eastern & southern Luzon, eastern Visayas and central Mindanao.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 28, 2023
Week Validity: May 29- Jun 06, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas of below normal rainfall in Bicol Region and eastern Visayas.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Panay Island while some areas in Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, the rest of Visayas and most of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Panay Island while some areas in Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, the rest of Visayas and most of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906