Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2022


Rainfall deficit of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of Ilocos & Cordillera Region while 40-80mm increase of rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon, Visayas, Davao Region and western Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except some parts of Northern Luzon and CARAGA Region, South Cotabato and Davao Occidental during the forecast period.



Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2022


Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in Cagayan, cooler than average and Misamis Oriental & Maguindanao, warmer than average during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2022


Northeasterly to easterly windflow affecting Northern and Central Luzon while Southwest Monsoon affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 30- Oct 06, 2022


Rainfall deficit of 40-80mm is expected in most parts of Ilocos & Cordillera Region while 40-80mm increase of rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (except Bukidnon) during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except in extreme parts of northern Luzon during the forecast period.



Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 30- Oct 06, 2022


Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in Aurora, Bulacan, Antipolo, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat where slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is expected in Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 30- Oct 06, 2022


Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 19-25, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in Central & Southern Luzon, most areas in Visayas and Sarangani while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in southern Luzon, Negros Island and western Mindanao while and rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in southern Luzon, most areas in Visayas and Mindanao while Panay Island and the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 26- Oct 02, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most areas in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most areas in Luzon and western Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most areas in Luzon and Panay island while Visayas and Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Oct 03-16, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most areas in southern Luzon and Visayas while the rest of Luzon and Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most areas in Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely receive below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most areas in northern Luzon, western parts of Central Luzon, Bicol Region, Eastern & Central Visayas and western & eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 22, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 19-27, 2022

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in southern Luzon, most areas in Visayas and Sarangani while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern half of Luzon, Panay Island and patches of above normal rainfall in Mindanao.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in southern Luzon, most areas in Visayas and Mindanao while Panay Island and the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906