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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: April 01, 2025
Week Validity: April 02 - 08, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 10-40mm is expected in some areas in Northern and Central Luzon and Eastern Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: April 01, 2025
Week Validity: April 02 - 08, 2025
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: April 01, 2025
Week Validity: April 02 - 08, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: April 01, 2025
Week Validity: April 09 - 15, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 10-20mm is expected in most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: April 01, 2025
Week Validity: April 09 - 15, 2025
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except for some areas in Northern Luzon and most parts of Central Luzon and CALABARZON where slightly warmer than average surface air temperature is likely.
Initial Condition: April 01, 2025
Week Validity: April 09 - 15, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 31- Apr 06, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in CAR, Cagayan Valley, southern Luzon and northern and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in CAR, Cagayan Valley, central and southern Luzon, where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and central Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in western parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in western parts Luzon.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 14-27, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 31- Apr 08, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern, central, and southern Luzon, and Davao Oriental where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.