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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: Sept 09, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 10-16, 2026
Week 1: Forecast Precipitation (mm)
100 – 200 mm over portions of CAR, Pangasinan, western section of Central Luzon, western portion of Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro, ;
<100 mm over the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
High to very high over most parts of the country;
Moderate to high over southern parts of Zamboanga Peninsula, and southwestern Mindanao.
Probability of Exceeding 50mm
High to very high over Central Luzon, NCR, and most of Ilocos Region, CAR, and Cagayan Valley Region;
Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon (except Southern Palawan and northernmost part of Luzon), the central portion of Mindanao, and Davao Region;
Low to moderate over the rest of the country
Probability of Exceeding 100 mm
Moderate to high over Pangasinan, most of Central Luzon, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, and Northern Palawan (including the Kalayaan Islands);
Low to moderate over Luzon;
Low over Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability of Exceeding 150mm
Moderate over Zambales, and Bataan;
Low over the rest of the country
Probability of Exceeding 200mm
Low across the country.
Initial Condition: Sept 09, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 10-16, 2026
2m Temperature Forecast (oC) Week 1: Sep 10-16, 2026
Warmer-than-usual conditions are likely over Palawan, the western section of Visayas and most of Mindanao;
Near-average to slightly warmer-than-usual conditions are likely over the rest of the country, except for some areas of Luzon, where patches of slightly cooler-than-average conditions are likely.
Initial Condition: Sept 09, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 10-16, 2026
Enhance Southwest Monsoon will continue to affect the western section of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies likely to affects the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: Sept 09, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 17-23, 2026
Week 2: Forecast Precipitation (mm)
75 – 100 mm over most of Luzon and Western Visayas;
<75 mm over the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
High to very high over most parts of Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bukidnon;
Moderate to high over Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Palawan, and the rest of Mindanao.
Probability of Exceeding 50mm
Moderate to high over most of the country;
Low to moderate over extreme northern Luzon, Southern Palawan, and southwestern and northeastern portions of Mindanao.
Probability of Exceeding 100 mm
Low to moderate over Northern and Central Luzon;
Low over the rest of the country.
Probability of Exceeding 150mm
Low to moderate over CAR;
Low over the rest of the country.
Probability of Exceeding 200mm
Low across the country.
Initial Condition: Sept 09, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 17-23, 2026
2m Temperature Forecast (oC) Week 2: Sep 17-23, 2026
Warmer-than-usual conditions are likely over most of Mindanao;
Near-average to slightly warmer-than-usual conditions are likely elsewhere.
Initial Condition: Sept 09, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 17-23, 2026
Southwest Monsoon will affect the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies likely to affects the rest of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 08, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 09-15, 2026
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and western Luzon, and Panay Island while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, and some areas in Cavite and Batangas while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 08, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 16-22, 2026
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Palawan and western Visayas, and northern half of Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, western part of Central Luzon, northwestern Mindanao, and some areas in Leyte provinces while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, western part of Central Luzon, and some areas in Bicol region, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 08, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 23- 06 Oct, 2026
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, and southern Mindanao while Marinduque, some areas in Mindoro, Palawan, Sorsogon, Masbate, Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in central and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Cavite, Batangas, and eastern Mindanao while Cagayan, some areas in Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, and Pangasinan, the rest of Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 08, 2026
Week Validity: Sep 09-17, 2026
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Mindoro, and Bukidnon while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and western parts of Central Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall