Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: February 29, 2024
Week Validity: March 01-07, 2024


Rainfall deficit of up to 100mm in northern Mindanao and 20-80mm for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

Low to moderate over Mindanao;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Low across the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: February 29, 2024
Week Validity: March 01-07, 2024


Slightly to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of northern & central Luzon and Mindanao while average to slightly cooler for the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: February 29, 2024
Week Validity: March 01-07, 2024


Easterlies will likely affect most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: February 29, 2024
Week Validity: Mar 08-14, 2024


Rainfall deficit of up to 100mm in northern Mindanao and 20-80mm for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

Moderate to high over the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela;
Low to moderate over the rest of Northern Luzon;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Low across the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: February 29, 2024
Week Validity: Mar 08-14, 2024


Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in Isabela, western sections of Luzon, Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat and North Cotabato where slightly average to warmer than average temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: February 29, 2024
Week Validity: Mar 08-14, 2024


Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Northern Luzon; Easterlies for the rest of the country.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 25, 2024
Week Validity: Feb 26- Mar 03, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and southern Mindanao while some areas in northern and western Luzon, Bicol Region, Palawan, most parts of Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, northern Samar and southwestern Mindanao while some areas in Ilocos Norte and Apayao, , Palawan, most parts of Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, northern Samar and southwestern Mindanao while some areas in Ilocos Norte and Apayao, , Palawan, most parts of Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 25, 2024
Week Validity: Mar 04-10, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and eastern Mindanao while some areas in eastern and southern Luzon, most of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in Bicol Region, western Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in Bicol Region, western Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 25, 2024
Week Validity: Mar 11-24, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and eastern Mindanao while some areas in eastern and southern Luzon, most of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 25, 2024
Week Validity: Feb 26-Mar 05, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and southern Mindanao while some areas in western Luzon, Bicol Region, Palawan, most parts of Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, and southwestern Mindanao while some areas in northern and central Luzon, Palawan, most parts of Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, and southwestern Mindanao while some areas in northern and central Luzon, Palawan, most parts of Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph