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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 02-08, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-70mm is expected in most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 02-08, 2025
Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 02-08, 2025
Southwest windflow affecting Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 09-15, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm is expected in in most parts of Luzon and Visayas.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 09-15, 2025
Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in Davao Occ. , Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Island where slightly warmer than average temperature is expected .
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 09-15, 2025
Southwest windflow affecting Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting Mindanao during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 02-08, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and Caraga Region while Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, Panay Island and Leyte provinces, while the rest of Luzon and Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, most parts of Bicol Region, western Visayas and Leyte provinces, while the rest of Luzon and Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 09-15, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Zamboanga Peninsula while MIMAROPA and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern, central, and southern Luzon, in eastern and southwestern Mindanao while Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, southern parts of Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern, central, and southern Luzon, Panay Island, eastern Mindanao and some areas in western Mindanao while Mindoro, Marinduque Palawan, Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 16-29, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Panay Island and Masbate where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, northern Caraga, and southwestern Mindanao while Mindoro, Marinduque, Palawan, Quezon, Leyte provinces and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, northern Caraga, and southwestern Mindanao while Mindoro, Marinduque, Palawan, Quezon, Leyte provinces and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 01, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 02-10, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, and some areas in Caraga Region while most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern, central and southern Luzon, Bicol Region, eastern and western Visayas, and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, most parts of Bicol Region, Visayas, and western Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.