Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 16-22, 2021


Rainfall deficit of up to 100mm is expected in Cordillera & Ilocos Region while 40-100mm increase of rainfall in in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao especially in the western section during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country is expected except in Ilocos Norte, Apayao & Cagayan during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country is expected except in Northern & Eastern Luzon during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected except in Negros Island, Bukidnon and western parts of Mindanao during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 16-22, 2021


Average to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Luzon while slightly cooler to cooler than average temperature in Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 16-22, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Southwest monsoon affecting some parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country attributing to light and moderate rains due to thunderstorms during the forecast.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2021


Increase of rainfall of 60-100mm is expected in most parts of the country except in Cordillera Region where 40-100mm rainfall deficit during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Bukidnon & Lanao del Sur while 40-80% chance for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2021


Average to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat where slightly warmer temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country attributing to light and moderate rains due to thunderstorms during the forecast.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 16-22, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some parts of Central Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely..

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northeastern Luzon, Bicol region and most parts of Visayas & Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northeastern Luzon, Bicol region and most parts of Visayas & Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 23-29, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 30- Oct 13, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely..

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely..

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 15, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 16-24, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some parts of Central Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely..

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some parts of Central Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely..

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906