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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 31- Apr 06, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-60mm is expected in some areas in northern Luzon, Palawan, and most parts of Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 31- Apr 06, 2025
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 31- Apr 06, 2025
Northeast windflow affecting Extreme Northern Luzon, Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-80mm is expected in most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: March 30, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 07-13, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 27, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 28- Apr 03, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon and southern parts of Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and central Luzon, Marinduque, Albay, and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Marinduque, Albay, and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 27, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 04-10, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern, central, and southern Luzon, central part of Negros Island, and southern Cebu where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern, central and southern Luzon, central part of Negros Island, and southern Cebu where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 27, 2025
Week Validity: Apr 11-24, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern parts of northern Luzon, some areas in central Luzon, Bicol Region, southern Panay, Leyte provinces and most of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, northern and central Mindanao while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Masbate and Samar provinces where above normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 27, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 28- Apr 05, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, Mindoro, Marinduque, and eastern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in southern Mindanao.