-
This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
-
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
-
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
-
Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
-
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
-
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: July 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025



Increase of rainfall of 20-90mm is expected in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while 10-40mm rainfall deficit is likely in Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm



Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: July 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

Near average to slightly warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: July 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025



SW Monsoon will likely affect the western sections of Luzon. Westerlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao. While Easterlies affecting the rest of Luzon.
Initial Condition: July 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025



Increase of rainfall of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of Luzon; 20-80mm in Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and western Visayas while 20-60mm rainfall deficit is expected for the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm



Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: July 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while near average surface air temperature is expected over Luzon.
Initial Condition: July 13, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025



Enhance SW Monsoon will likely affect most parts of the country
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 06, 2025
Week Validity: July 07-13, 2025
GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except in some areas of below normal rainfall in western and northern Luzon, and southern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon and western part of Central Luzon, while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 06, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025
GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon (except Isabela) while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, and Samar provinces while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 06, 2025
Week Validity: Jul 21- Jul 03, 2025
GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in western Luzon and Visayas.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except with areas of below normal rainfall in Luzon and patches in Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except with areas of below normal rainfall in Luzon and patches in Visayas and Mindanao.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 06, 2025
Week Validity: July 07-15, 2025
GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, and southern Mindanao, while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.