PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: September 05, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 06-12, 2024

Increase of rainfall of 20-100mm is likely in Northern and Central Luzon; 20-40mm in Bukidnon and southwestern Mindanao while 10-60mm rainfall deficit is expected over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most of Northern and Central Luzon and Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over rest of Luzon and Visayas

•.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Northern Luzon;

•Moderate to high over Central Luzon, NCR, Occidental Mindoro and most parts of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over Ilocos Provinces;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan and Pangasinan;

•Moderate over the rest of Luzon and Bukidnon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over Ilocos Provinces and Abra;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Northern Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

•

Initial Condition: September 05, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 06-12, 2024

Near to warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: September 05, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 06-12, 2024

Southwest Monsoon affecting the affecting the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: September 05, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 13-19, 2024

Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm in most parts of Luzon and Visayas; 10-20mm in western Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon, Visayas and western Mindanao

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over CAR, Central and Southern Luzon, NCR and Antique;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon, most of Visayas, Bukidnon, Lanao Provinces and Zamboanga Peninsula;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over most of Western Luzon, southern part of CAR, Central Luzon, southern part of Camarines Sur, Albay, Antique, Guimaras, and western part of Iloilo and Negros Occidental, ;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, La Union, western part of Batangas, Cavite, Mindoro provinces, Antique, Northern and the western part of Iloilo;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over Occidental Mindoro and Antique;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: September 05, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 13-19, 2024

Near to slightly warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: September 05, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 13-19, 2024

Southwest Monsoon affecting most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 01, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 02-08 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon and southwestern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Ilocos Region, CAR, southern Luzon, eastern Visayas, and Caraga Region where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern, central & southern Luzon, and eastern Visayas where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 01, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 09-15, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Sarangani where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country with some patches of below normal rainfall in eastern and southern Luzon, and in Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Luzon, eastern Visayas and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 01, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 16-29, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Bicol region and southern parts of Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Quezon, Bicol Region, eastern Visayas, southern part of Negros Island, and most parts of Mindanao while most parts of Luzon, western Mindanao and some areas in northwestern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Quezon, Bicol Region, eastern and central Visayas, Negros Island, while most parts of Luzon and Panay Island will likely have above normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 01, 2024

Week Validity: Sep 02-10 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon and Sarangani where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and Mindanao while southern Luzon, the rest of Visayas, and the Caraga Region will likely have below normal rainfall conditions

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and Mindanao while southern Luzon, and the rest of Visayas will likely have below normal rainfall conditions