PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 18-24, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm is expected in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while 10-50mm rainfall deficit is likely in central Visayas , eastern Samar and most parts of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon, Visayas and western Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Luzon (except for Southern Palawan), Western Visayas, and NIR;

•Moderate to high over Southern Palawan, Northern portion of Eastern Visayas, and the westernmost portion of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over the western sections of Luzon (except for Southern Palawan), Cagayan, Batanes, westernmost section of Visayas, and most of the Bicol region;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon, Western Visayas and NIR;

•Low to moderate over Southern Palawan, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•High to very high over the western section of Luzon (except for Southern Palawan), and Batanes;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon (except for Southern Palawan) and the western section of Western Visayas;

•Low to moderate over Southern Palawan, and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over the western sections of Luzon (except for Southern Palawan), Batanes, Cagayan, southern portion of Bicol Region, and Antique;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 18-24, 2025

Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon while slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature is expected over Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 18-24, 2025

Enhance SW Monsoon will likely affect most parts of Luzon and western sections of Visayas. Westerlies affecting the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 25-31, 2025

Increase of rainfall of more than 80-100mm is expected in most parts of western and central Luzon while 20-80mm rainfall deficit is expected over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon, western Panay;

•Moderate to high Isabela, Quirino, Palawan, Bicol Region, and the rest of western Visayas.

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao;

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over the western section of Luzon (except for Palawan and Oriental Mindoro);

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon (except for Southern Palawan) and Antique;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over Ilocos region and the western section of Central Luzon;

•Moderate to high over Batanes, CAR, NCR, the rest of Central Luzon, Cavite, Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Antique;

•Low over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Luzon (except for Palawan);

•Low to moderate the rest of Luzon;

•Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Northern and Central Luzon;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 25-31, 2025

Near average to slightly warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon and western Visayas; warmer than average for the rest of Visayas and most parts of Mindanao

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 25-31, 2025

Enhance SW Monsoon will likely affect the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Westerlies affecting the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: July 14-20, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in in some areas in Cagayan, Isabela, southern Cebu, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in in some areas in the western parts of Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, Palawan, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Luzon, Panay Island, Zamboanga Peninsula, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in eastern parts of Luzon, Leyte provinces, Bohol, Negros Island, Zamboanga City, and eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 28- Aug 10, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Cagayan, Palawan, and most of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in western parts of the country while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and eastern Visayas (except with some patches of below normal rainfall), Zamboanga Peninsula and some areas in central Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: July 14-22, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, Palawan, Masbate, Visayas, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, Samar provinces and some areas in central Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces and some areas in central Mindanao while MIMAROPA, and the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.