Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: December 01, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 02-08, 2021


Rainfall deficit of 40-80mm is expected in most parts of the country and up to 150mm in Isabela during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in Apayao, Cagayan, parts of Isabela, most parts of Bicol Region, eastern Visayas, Aklan, Capiz and Mindanao (except Zamboanga Peninsula) while less likely for the rest of Luzon during the forecast period.

60-95% probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in CARAGA Region and Northern & Eastern Samar while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: December 01, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 02-08, 2021


Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while slightly cooler in Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: December 01, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 02-08, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of light to moderate precipitation in the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao. Northeast Monsoon affecting Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas while Easterlies affecting the Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: December 01, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 09-15, 2021


Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is expected in most parts of Cordillera Region, Cagayan Valley and Northern Mindanao while 40-60mm increase of rainfall in most Bicol Region and most parts of Visayas during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in Apayao, Cagayan, half of Isabela, most parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in eastern parts of Cagayan & Isabela, Or. Mindoro, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, eastern PANAY, northern part of Negros Occ. and most parts of CARAGA Region while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



60-80% probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in Camarines Sur, Catanduanes and in Northern & Eastern Samar while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: December 01, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 09-15, 2021


Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Northern Luzon, Mindoro, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Sarangani and South Cotabato while average to slightly warmer for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: December 01, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 09-15, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of light to moderate precipitation in some parts of Northern and Central Luzon, most parts Bicol region, Visayas and Mindanao (except Western Mindanao). Northeast Monsoon affecting the eastern sections of Luzon and Visayas while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2021
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 05, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in western Visayas and Sarangani.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in western Visayas and Sarangani.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some parts of CALABARZON, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 06-12, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts Luzon and Visayas and CARAGA while northern Luzon, Palawan and rest of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Northern Luzon, some parts of CALABARZON, Mindoro and eastern & southwestern Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Northern Luzon, some parts of CALABARZON, Mindoro and eastern & southwestern Mindanao.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2021
Week Validity: Dec 13-26, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2021
Week Validity: Nov 29-Dec 07, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal in Visayas.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal in Visayas.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some parts of CALABARZON, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906