Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast

  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: May 18, 2025
Week Validity: May 19-25, 2025


Rainfall deficit of 60-90mm is expected in most parts of northern and central Luzon and some areas in southern Luzon, while 20-90mm increase of rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Ilocos Sur, La Union, MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over the rest of Ilocos Region, central and southern Luzon .
• Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Palawan and most of Mindanao;
•Moderate to high over Visayas, Surigao del Sur, the rest of MIMAROPA, Masbate, and Sorsogon;
•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon.


Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Palawan and most parts of Mindanao
•Low to moderate over the Visayas and Caraga;
•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate over Palawan;
•Low to moderate the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2025
Week Validity: May 19-25, 2025


Warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in northern and central Luzon; near to slightly warmer for the rest of Luzon while near average temperature is forecasted in Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2025
Week Validity: May 19-25, 2025


Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: May 18, 2025
Week Validity: May 26- Jun 01, 2025


Rainfall deficit of 10-20mm is expected in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, while 10-40mm increase of rainfall is expected for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high across the country.
•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high across the country.
•


Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low to moderate over Luzon and Visayas;
•Low over Mindanao;

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over Luzon;
•Low over Visayas and Mindanao;

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2025
Week Validity: May 26- Jun 01, 2025


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: May 18, 2025
Week Validity: May 26- Jun 01, 2025


Southwest windflow affecting Western Philippines. Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 15, 2025
Week Validity: May 16-22, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, southern Palawan, Masbate, Visayas, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 15, 2025
Week Validity: May 23-29, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Eastern Visayas while Mindoro, Palawan, the rest of Visayas, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Bicol Region, and northern & western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in central Luzon, some areas in southern Luzon, Bukidnon, and northern and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 15, 2025
Week Validity: May 30- Jun 12, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern & southern Luzon, Panay Island, and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected .

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Bicol Region, most parts of Visayas, some areas in eastern and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in central Luzon, some areas in southern Luzon, Bukidnon, and northern and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 15, 2025
Week Validity: May 16-24, 2025

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Samar provinces while Palawan, Masbate, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

GEFS Archive
NCEP Archive

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph