PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: April 22, 2025

Week Validity: April 23 - 29, 2025

Rainfall deficit of 10-40mm is expected in most parts of Luzon and Panay while 10-20mm increase in rainfall will be likely over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over some parts of CAR, La Union, Eastern Samar and most parts of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of CAR, Ilocos Sur, Nueva Vizcaya, Palawan, the rest of Eastern Visayas, Bohol and the southern part of NIR;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to a high over CAR and most of western and southern Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of CAR, Ilocos Sur, La Union, eastern Visayas and the rest of Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: April 22, 2025

Week Validity: April 23 - 29, 2025

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon while near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced for the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: April 22, 2025

Week Validity: April 23 - 29, 2025

Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: April 22, 2025

Week Validity: April 30 - May 06, 2025

Increase in rainfall of 20-40mm is expected in most parts of the country

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over some parts of CAR, La Union, Eastern Samar and most parts of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of CAR, Ilocos Sur, Nueva Vizcaya, Palawan, the rest of Eastern Visayas, Bohol and the southern part of NIR;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to a high over CAR and most of western and southern Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of CAR, Ilocos Sur, La Union, eastern Visayas and the rest of Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low to moderate across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

•

Initial Condition: April 22, 2025

Week Validity: April 30 - May 06, 2025

Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: April 22, 2025

Week Validity: April 30 - May 06, 2025

Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 10, 2025

Week Validity: Apr 11-17, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Samar provinces, and northern part of Panay Island where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central and southern Luzon, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Marinduque, some areas in northern and central Luzon, and northern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 10, 2025

Week Validity: Apr 18-24, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, and western Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and western Mindanao while the rest of the country (except with some patches of below normal rainfall) will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Mindoro, Bicol Region, Samar provinces, and eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 10, 2025

Week Validity: Apr 25- May 09, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, some areas in Visayas, and eastern and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and north western Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.