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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: November 19, 2024
Week Validity: November 20 - 26, 2024
Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is most likely in most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 19, 2024
Week Validity: November 20 - 26, 2024
Warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 19, 2024
Week Validity: November 20 - 26, 2024
Northeast windflow affecting Extreme Northern Luzon, Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: November 19, 2024
Week Validity: November 27 - December 03, 2024
Increase of Rainfall of 20-80mm is most likely in Cagayan, Isabela, and in most parts of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 19, 2024
Week Validity: November 27 - December 03, 2024
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 19, 2024
Week Validity: November 27 - December 03, 2024
Northeast windflow affecting Northern Luzon, Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 14, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 15-21, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Panay Island, and northern part of Negros Island while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 14, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 22-28, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, and some areas in Panay Island while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and western Luzon, Northern Samar, and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in eastern and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 14, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 12, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of central and southern Luzon and some areas in northern Luzon while the rest of Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western and central Mindanao while Mindoro, Palawan, Camarines Norte, Masbate, most parts of Visayas and eastern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Northern Samar, western and central Mindanao while Mindoro, Palawan, Masbate, most parts of Visayas and eastern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 14, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 15-23, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Panay Island and northern part of Negros Island while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Pangasinan and Central Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Zambales and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.