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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: August 05, 2026
Week Validity: August 06 - 12, 2025
Increase in rainfall of 20-60mm is forecasted in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Region and Central Luzon where deficit of 20-60mm in rainfall is likely.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: August 05, 2026
Week Validity: August 06 - 12, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: August 05, 2026
Week Validity: August 06 - 12, 2025
Weak SW Monsoon will likely affect the western section of Luzon. Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: August 05, 2026
Week Validity: August 13 - 19, 2025
Increase in rainfall of 40-80mm is forecasted in most parts of the country except in Ilocos provinces and Cagayan where deficit of 20-60mm in rainfall is likely.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: August 05, 2026
Week Validity: August 13 - 19, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while slightly cooler than average surface air temperature is likely in Mindanao.
Initial Condition: August 05, 2026
Week Validity: August 13 - 19, 2025
SW Monsoon will likely affect the western section of Luzon. Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 31, 2025
Week Validity: Aug 01- 07, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern parts of Ilocos Region & CAR, Cagayan, Central Luzon, some areas I southern Luzon, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of the Luzon, Panay Island, and Sarangani will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and central Luzon, most parts of southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and central Luzon, most parts of southern Luzon, Panay Island, Leyte, Zamboanga Peninsula and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 31, 2025
Week Validity: Aug 08-14, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Mindanao, and Panay Island while some areas in central Luzon Bicol Region, and the rest of Visayas will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Ilocos Region where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Ilocos Region where above normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 31, 2025
Week Validity: Aug 15-28, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern and central Luzon, some areas in western Visayas and Leyte, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas and some areas in Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 31, 2025
Week Validity: Aug 01-09, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Isabela, Mindoro, western Visayas and Sarangani where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central and southern Luzon, Negros Island, and n Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central and southern Luzon, Negros Island, and n Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.