PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: February 20, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 21-27, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 20-80mm is expected in most parts of southern Luzon; 40-100mm in Visayas and eastern Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over the eastern parts of Luzon, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, most parts of Visayas and eastern parts of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over most of CAR, Occ. Mindoro, western parts of Panay and Negros Island, and the rest of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Aklan, Capiz, the northeastern part of Iloilo, Samar Provinces, and Caraga;

•Moderate to high over the easternmost part of Isabela, Quezon, MIMAROPA (except for Oriental Mindoro), the northern part of Negros Occidental, Central Visayas, Leyte Provinces and the rest of Eastern Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over most of Aklan, Capiz, Eastern Visayas, and most of Caraga;

• Low to moderate over MIMAROPA, Bicol Region and the rest of Visayas and Eastern Mindanao;

•Low to over the of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over most of Visayas, and Eastern Mindanao;

•Low to over the of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 21-27, 2025

Slightly cooler to cooler than average air temperature will likely be experienced in Northern and Central Luzon while near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature is expected for the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 21-27, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: February 20, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 28-Mar 06, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 20-70mm is expected in MIMAROPA, Sorsogon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Catanduanes, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the eastern most part of Isabela, southern Luzon, and the rest of Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over most of Bicol Region, Aklan, Capiz, Eastern Visayas, and most of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low to moderate across the country. ;

Probability to Exceed 150mm

• Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 28-Mar 06, 2025

Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in Luzon and Visayas while near average surface air temperatures is expected in Mindanao.

Initial Condition: February 20, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 28-Mar 06, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 17-23, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and most parts of Zamboanga Peninsula and Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, most parts of Bicol Region, southern parts of Negros Island , and Misamis Oriental while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, most parts of Bicol Region, and Surigao del Norte while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 24- Mar 02, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and most parts of Zamboanga Peninsula and Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern, western, and southern Luzon, Eastern Samar, Leyte provinces, and northwestern parts of Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2025

Week Validity: Mar 3-16, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon and Bicol Region, some areas in central and southern Luzon, Negros Island, Central Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga Region while Isabela, Quirino, and the rest of Visayas and most of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 16, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 17-25, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and most parts of Zamboanga Peninsula and Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in eastern and southern Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Isabela, Pangasinan, and the northern part of Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is more likely.