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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: March 18, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 19-25, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 40-80mm is expected over Palawan, most of Visayas, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 18, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 19-25, 2025
Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of northern Luzon, near average for the rest of Luzon and most of Visayas while slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Mindanao.
Initial Condition: March 18, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 19-25, 2025
Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: March 18, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 26- Apr 01, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 20-70mm is expected over most parts of Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: March 18, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 26- Apr 01, 2025
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon while near average temperature is expected for the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: March 18, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 26- Apr 01, 2025
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 17-23, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and central Luzon, and eastern and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and central Luzon, and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 24-30, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Bicol region Samar provinces, Zamboanga Peninsula, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Bicol region Samar provinces, Zamboanga Peninsula, and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 31- Apr 13, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, Palawan, some areas in northern and central Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in northern Luzon, Camarines Norte, and eastern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: March 16, 2025
Week Validity: Mar 17-25, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in eastern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall conditions in western Luzon and Albay.