Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 11-17, 2024


Increase of rainfall of more than 50mm will be likely in most parts of northern, central, and southern Luzon while rainfall deficit of 10-60mm is expected in Mindoro, Palawan Quezon, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to a very high over most parts of northern and central Luzon and western Mindanao
Moderate to high over most parts of southern Luzon, NCR, and Compostela Valley;
Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

High to a very high over Cagayan Valley CAR, Ilocos Provinces, and La Union;
Moderate to high over Pangasinan, Central Luzon, Northern part of Quezon including Polilo Islands, and NCR;
Low to moderate over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

High over Aurora, Cagayan Valley, CAR, Ilocos Provinces and La Union;
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon, except MIMAROPA;
Low over the rest of the country;

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Moderate to high over Aurora, portions of CAR and Cagayan;
Low to moderate over the rest of Northern and Central Luzon;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Moderate to high over portions of Aurora, Cagayan, and Isabela;
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;
Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 11-17, 2024


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 11-17, 2024


Easterlies will likely affect most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-24, 2024


Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm is most likely in most parts of the country except in some areas in Or. Mindoro, and Capiz where there is 10-25mm increase of rainfall.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high Cagayan, Isabela, eastern parts of Apayao, Kalinga, Quezon , Catanduanes, Palawan, Samar provinces, eastern Panay Island, and most parts of Mindanao;
Moderate to high over the rest of rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Moderate to high over the eastern portions of Cagayan, Isabela, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Capiz, and the western and eastern portions of Mindanao;
Low to moderate over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-24, 2024


Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: November 10, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 18-24, 2024


Easterlies will likely affect most parts of the country during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 5-11, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Panay Island, northern Samar, and some areas in extreme northern Luzon, central Visayas and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Panay Island, northern Samar, and some areas in western Luzon, and southern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 12-18, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Samar provinces and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas, and northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Negros Island, eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Negros Island, Samar provinces, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely .


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 19- Dec 02, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and southern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Caraga Region and northern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely ..


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 04, 2024
Week Validity: Nov 05-13, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Region, Apayao, Cagayan, central Luzon, Bicol Region, western Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is more likely .

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Region, Apayao, central Luzon, Bicol Region, western Visayas, Caraga Region and Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is more likely .

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph