-
This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
-
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
-
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
-
Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
-
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
-
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: July 25, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26-Aug 01, 2024
60-100mm increase of rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Region, Apayao, Cagayan and Central Luzon while 60-100mm deficit of rainfall over the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: July 25, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26-Aug 01, 2024
Near to warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in Apayao, Cagayan, and Davao Region where slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature is expected.
Initial Condition: July 25, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26-Aug 01, 2024
Southwest Monsoon affecting Western of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: July 25, 2024
Week Validity: Aug 02-08, 2024
20-80mm deficit of rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: July 25, 2024
Week Validity: Aug 02-08, 2024
Near to slightly warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, South Cotabato, and Saranggani where slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature is expected.
Initial Condition: July 25, 2024
Week Validity: Aug 02-08, 2024
Southwest Monsoon affecting western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 22-28, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in eastern and southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest Luzon and Visayas will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas (except with some patches of below normal rainfall), Misamis Oriental and some areas in eastern and southern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 29- Aug 04, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, and southwestern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Panay Island while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Aug 5-18, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and eastern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Cagayan and some areas in western parts of northern and central Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon and some areas in southern Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 22-30, 2024
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in western and central Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, most of Visayas, and northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces and some areas in northern Mindanao while the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.