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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: February 02, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 03-09, 2023
Rainfall deficit of up to 100mm in northern Mindanao, 20-60mm is expected for the rest of the country except in Davao Region where 20-40mm increase of rainfall is more likely during the forecast period.
Very high probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of Bicol Region, most parts of Visayas (except western parts of Panay & Negros Island) and eastern Mindanao, 60-80% probability in eastern Isabela and northern Quezon, while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in northern and eastern Samar, southern Leyte and some areas in eastern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 02, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 03-09, 2023
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in northern and central Luzon while average to slightly cooler than average temperature is expected for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 02, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 03-09, 2023
Northeast Monsoon is forecasted to affect the eastern section of Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies is forecasted to affect the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 02, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 10-16, 2023
Increase of rainfall of 40-80mm is expected in most parts of Bicol Region, Visayas and eastern Mindanao while 20-40mm rainfall deficit is forecasted in northern Luzon, Bukidnon and Lanao provinces during the forecast period.
Very high probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of Bicol Region, most parts of Visayas (except western parts of Panay and Mindanao, 60-80% probability in eastern Cagayan, Isabela and northern Quezon while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in northern and eastern Samar, southern Leyte and eastern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country except in CARAGA Region where there is 60-70% chance during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 02, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 10-16, 2023
Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except Isabela, Quirino and Aurora where slightly warmer to warmer temperature is expected during the forecast period. during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: February 02, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 10-16, 2023
Easterlies is forecasted to affect most parts of the country during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 29, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 30- Feb 05, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon and most of Visayas while the rest of Luzon and most of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Mindoro and some areas in western Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in Luzon and most of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 29, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 06-12, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in some areas in Ilocos Region and western Luzon, most areas in Eastern and Central Visayas and Mindanao while most of Luzon and western Visayas will likely receive below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Samar provinces and some areas in Central Luzon and CARAGA Region where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Samar provinces and some areas in Central Luzon and CARAGA Region where above normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 29, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 13-26, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern and central Luzon and most of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and most of Visayas will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas and some areas in central and southern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 29, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 30- Feb 07, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon and most of Visayas while the rest of Luzon and most of Mindanao will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Luzon, and Visayas where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula and CARAGA Region where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906