During the forecast period, the country will be affected by the low-pressure area (LPA), tropical cyclone, southwest monsoon (Habagat), and localized thunderstorms.

During the first half of the dekad, cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms will prevail over Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, some parts of Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Western Visayas due to the combined effects of tropical cyclone LUIS and southwest monsoon (Habagat). Meanwhile, the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. On the second half of the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone LUIS weakened into remnant low, tropical cyclone DOLPHIN will continue to enhance southwest monsoon (Habagat) and will bring cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.

Gusty winds are expected along and near the track of the tropical cyclone, particularly over Cagayan Valley, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Quezon, and parts of the Bicol Region. Northeasterly winds are expected to affect Luzon, while the rest of the country will experience southerly to southwesterly winds. As the forecast period progresses, southwesterly winds are expected to prevail across the entire country for the remainder of the period due to the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat).

Slight to moderate sea conditions are expected over most parts of the country at the beginning of the forecast period. Thereafter, moderate to rough seas are expected over the eastern seaboards of the country. Moderate to rough seas are also expected to persist over the western seaboards of Luzon due to the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), while slight to moderate seas are likely to prevail over the rest of the archipelago for the remainder of the forecast period.

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ENSO ALERT SYSTEM STATUS: EL NIÑO (Updated: 22 July 2026) A weak to moderate El Niño is currently present in the tropical Pacific. Climate model forecasts indicate that El Niño is likely to intensify over the coming months and persist through the first half of 2027, with an estimated 97% probability. There is about a 57% probability that strong El Niño conditions will develop during the July August–September (JAS) 2026 season. Forecasts further suggest an 81% probability that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during the October–November–December (OND) 2026 and November–December January (NDJ) 2026–2027 seasons.

Farmers are advised to prepare for prolonged wet conditions brought by the tropical cyclone and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). Improve and maintain farm drainage to prevent waterlogging, use raised beds for moisture-sensitive crops and consider planting flood-tolerant crop varieties suitable for your area. Regularly monitor crops for pests and diseases, as wet conditions favor their spread, and reinforce greenhouses, animal shelters, and storage facilities against heavy rain and strong winds. Harvest mature crops when possible and keep seeds, fertilizers, and farm equipment in dry, elevated locations. Fisherfolk are advised to closely monitor official weather and marine advisories, avoid venturing into rough or dangerous waters, and secure fishing boats, cages, pens, and other fishing gear before the onset of severe weather. Stay updated with the latest DOST PAGASA weather forecasts, tropical cyclone advisories, and local government announcements to support timely decision-making, reduce agricultural losses, and strengthen farm resilience against weather-related hazards.