PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

PAGASA: Recent DOST-PAGASA’s climate monitoring and analyses show further cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 70% chance of La Niña forming in August-September-October (ASO) 2024 season and is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2025. With this development, the DOST-PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Alert. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific. (Updated: 12 July 2024)