PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

PAGASA: A weak to moderate El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest that El Niño will likely intensify over the next few seasons and persist until the first half of 2027 (~97%). A strong El Niño is likely to emerge by the July-Aug-Sep season (~57%), and a very strong El Niño is favored during the Oct-Nov-Dec and Nov-Dec-Jan seasons (~81%). (updated: 22 July 2026)