PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

PAGASA: Periods of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since August 2025 continue to persist and have further strengthened and reached the La Niña conditions threshold of -0.5°C sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in September 2025, as shown by the recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators. La Niña condition exists if a one-month SSTA of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the 3-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., September-October-November (SON), December-January-February (DJF)). This short-lived La Niña condition will likely continue at least until the DJF 2025-2026 season and return to ENSO-neutral conditions thereafter as suggested by several climate models.