PAGASA

EL NIŇO ALERT

02 May 2023

DOST-PAGASA S & T Media Service
Quezon City, 02 May 2023

PAGASA has been continuously monitoring the developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. Recent conditions and model forecasts indicate that El Niño may emerge in the coming season (June-July-August) at 80% probability and may persist until the first quarter of 2024. With this development, the PAGASA El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System is now raised to EL NIÑO ALERT.

El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). When conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next two months at a probability of 70% or more, an El Niño ALERT is issued.

El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country. However, over the western part of the country, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected.

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.

For more information, please call the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at the telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 or 4921 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com.

Original Signed:

VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D.
Administrator