Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18

Super Typhoon "Karding"

Issued at 05:00 pm, 25 September 2022
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 8:00 PM tomorrow)

THE EYEWALL OF “KARDING” IS NOW AFFECTING THE POLILLO ISLANDS
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
  • Heavy Rainfall
  • This afternoon through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, Rizal, and the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Pangasinan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, the central portion of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro and Camarines Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and the rest of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.
  • Tomorrow early morning through early afternoon: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of CALABARZON.
  • Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
  • Due to the Southwest Monsoon, occasional to monsoon rains over Palawan, Western Visayas and Zamboanga Peninsula. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 PM today and Weather Advisory #1 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 1:30 PM today.
  • Severe Winds
  • During the passage of KARDING, areas under Wind Signal No. 4 and No.5 will experience winds peaking at typhoon-force strength, while winds may reach storm-force in strength within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted. Gale-force conditions are likely any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted, while strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect. 
  • Coastal Inundation
  • There is a high to very high risk of storm surge more than 3.0 m in height in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands and Aurora. In addition, a moderate to high risk of storm surge is also possible over Camarines Norte, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bulacan, the northern portion of Metro Manila, the southern portion of La Union, and the rest of Quezon. The combined effects of storm surge and high waves breaking along the coast may cause life-threatening and damaging inundation or flooding. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #2 issued at 11:00 AM today.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
  • Under the influence of KARDING, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #5 issued at 5:00 PM today. 
  • TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
  • Super Typhoon KARDING is forecast to track generally westward in the next 6 to 12 hours, then west northwestward for the remainder of the day. On the forecast track, KARDING will likely make landfall in the vicinity of the northern portion of Quezon tonight. The possibility of landfall or close approach in the vicinity of Polillo Islands is not ruled out.
  •  For the remainder of this evening post-landfall through tomorrow early morning, KARDING will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea via the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan. The typhoon will then continue tracking generally westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
  •  KARDING is forecast maintain its strength prior to its landfall. Frictional effects during landfall and traverse of the Luzon landmass will weaken KARDING throughout the evening through tomorrow early morning, although it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass. 
Location of Eye/center

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon KARDING was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet and Baler Doppler Weather Radars over the coastal waters of Burdeos, Polillo Islands, Quezon (15.0 °N, 122.1 °E )

Movement

Moving Westward at 20 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 240 km/h

Forecast Position
  • Sep 26, 2022 02:00 AM - In the vicinity of Botolan, Zambales
  • Sep 26, 2022 02:00 PM - 315 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
  • Sep 27, 2022 02:00 AM - 625 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
  • Sep 27, 2022 02:00 PM - 865 km West of Central Luzon
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Polillo Islands, the extreme northern portion of Quezon (the northern and central portions of General Nakar, the northeastern portion of Infanta), the extreme southern portion of Aurora (Dingalan), the extreme southern portion of Nueva Ecija (General Tinio, City of Gapan, Peñaranda, San Isidro, Cabiao), Pampanga (Arayat, Candaba, Santa Ana, San Luis), the eastern and central portions of Bulacan (San Rafael, Angat, Norzagaray, Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Ildefonso, San Miguel), and the extreme northern portion of Rizal (Rodriguez), the eastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat)
Meteorological Condition
  • A very intense typhoon will affect the locality.
  • Very strong winds of more than 185 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Widespread damage to high-risk structures.
  • Very heavy damage to medium-risk structures.
  • Heavy damage to low-risk structures.
  • Almost total damage to structures of light materials, especially in highly exposed coastal areas.
  • Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Severe and extensive window and door damage.
  • Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged.
  • Electrical power distribution and communication services severely disrupted.
  • All signs/billboards blown down.
  • Total damage to banana plantation.
  • Most tall trees are broken, uprooted or defoliated.
  • Coconut trees are stooped, broken or uprooted.
  • Few plants and trees survived.
Precautionary Measures
  • The situation is potentially very destructive to the community.
  • All travels and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Evacuation to safer shelters should have been completed since it may be too late under this situation.
  • With PSWS #4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon. As the eye of the typhoon approaches, the weather will continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds (a lull) will be experienced. This means that the eye of the typhoon is over the locality. This improved weather may last for one to two hours depending on the diameter of the eye and the speed of movement. As the eye moves out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south.
  • The disaster coordinating councils concerned and other disaster response organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness to immediately respond to possible calamity.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Calaguas Islands, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Maria Aurora), the central and southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Nampicuan, Guimba, Licab, Zaragoza, San Antonio, San Leonardo, Jaen, Santa Rosa, Palayan City, Gabaldon, Laur, Cabanatuan City, Aliaga, Quezon, Santo Domingo, Talavera, Llanera, General Mamerto Natividad, Rizal, Bongabon, Talugtug, Science City of Muñoz), the northern and central portions of Rizal (City of Antipolo, Tanay, San Mateo, Baras), the northern portion of Metro Manila (Marikina, Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, and Quezon City), Tarlac, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, Zambales, the northern portion of Bataan (Dinalupihan, Hermosa, Morong, Orani, Samal, Abucay), the southern portion of Pangasinan (Bautista, Alcala, Bayambang, Mangatarem, Urbiztondo, Aguilar, Bugallon, Infanta, Dasol, Burgos, Mabini, Labrador), and the extreme northern portion of Laguna (Famy, Siniloan, Santa Maria, Pangil)
Meteorological Condition
  • A very intense typhoon will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 118 km/h up to 184 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Very heavy damage to high–risk structures.
  • Heavy damage to medium risk structures.
  • Moderate damage to low-risk structures.
  • Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
  • Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows.
  • A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged.
  • All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation.
  • Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
  • Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
  • Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Precautionary Measures
  • The situation is potentially very destructive to the community.
  • All travels and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Evacuation to safer shelters should have been completed since it may be too late under this situation.
  • With PSWS #4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon. As the eye of the typhoon approaches, the weather will continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds (a lull) will be experienced. This means that the eye of the typhoon is over the locality. This improved weather may last for one to two hours depending on the diameter of the eye and the speed of movement. As the eye moves out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south.
  • The disaster coordinating councils concerned and other disaster response organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness to immediately respond to possible calamity.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The central portion of Aurora (Dipaculao), the southeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax del Sur, Dupax del Norte), the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Bataan, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Metro Manila, the rest of Rizal, the northern and central portions of Laguna (Mabitac, Pakil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Pagsanjan, Luisiana, Majayjay, Magdalena, Santa Cruz, Pila, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Victoria, Rizal, City of San Pedro, City of Biñan, City of Santa Rosa, Cabuyao City, City of Calamba, Los Baños, Bay, Calauan), the northern and central portions of Cavite (Tanza, Rosario, Noveleta, Kawit, Imus City, Bacoor City, City of Dasmariñas, Carmona, Gen. Mariano Alvarez, Silang, Amadeo, City of General Trias, Trece Martires City, Naic, Indang), the rest of the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, Real, General Nakar, Mauban), and the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga)
  • Visayas
    • -
  • Mindanao
    • -
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 89 km/h up to 117 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Heavy damage to high–risk structures.
  • Moderate damage to medium-risk structures.
  • Light damage to low risk structures.
  • Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed.
  • Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
  • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
  • Almost all banana plants are downed.
  • Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
  • Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
  • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
  • Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures
  • The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
  • The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
  • Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
  • People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
  • When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
  • Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
  • Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The southern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones), Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Laguna, the central portions of Quezon (Calauag, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Sampaloc, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, Pitogo, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tiaong, San Antonio, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Buenavista), the rest of Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Pamplona, Pasacao, San Fernando, Pili, Minalabac, Ocampo, Tigaon, Cabusao, Magarao, Gainza, Canaman, Camaligan, Milaor, Naga City, Bombon, Calabanga, Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagñay), and Catanduanes
  • Visayas
    • -
  • Mindanao
    • -
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
  • Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
  • No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
  • Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
  • A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
  • Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
  • Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
  • Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
  • In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
  • Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
  • Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
  • Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures
  • The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts
  • Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality.
  • The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks.
  • Outdoor activities of children should be postponed.
  • Secure properties before the signal is upgraded.
  • Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do
  • Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods.
  • Keep your cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household things in case of flooding.
  • For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The southern portion of Cagayan (Tuao, Solana, Enrile, Tuguegarao City, Iguig, Peñablanca), the rest of Isabela, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner), Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, City of Batac, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos), Ilocos Sur, the rest of Quezon, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz) including Lubang Islands, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan, Victoria, Pola, Socorro, Pinamalayan), Marinduque, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island and Ticao Island
  • Visayas
    • -
  • Mindanao
    • -
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 39-61 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
  • Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
  • Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
  • Twigs of small trees may be broken.
  • Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.

    Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.