PAGASA

Severe Tropical Storm "Kristine"

Severe Tropical Storm "Kristine"

Issued at 02:00 pm, 24 October 2024

(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 5:00 PM today)

“KRISTINE” IS NOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN ILOCOS SUR.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 21 issued at 2:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today (24 October): The rest of the country outside Wind Signal areas.
Tomorrow (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Davao Region.
Saturday (26 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Zamboanga Norte, Siquijor, Bohol, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of around 1.0 to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Zambales. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and the western and central seaboards of Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 9A issued at 11:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Region, and Zambales; the western seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Up to 7.0 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley.
Up to 6.0 m: The western seaboards of Batangas; the seaboard of Lubang Island.
Up to 5.5 m: The western seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Calamian Islands.
Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the western seaboard of Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and mainland Palawan.
Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Cuyo Islands, Polillo Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Camarines Norte; the western seaboards of Quezon and Negros Oriental
Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and Zamboanga del Norte; the northern and western seaboards of Surigao del Norte.
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Mindanao.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
KRISTINE is forecast to move westward or west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region tomorrow (25 October) afternoon.
In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein KRISTINE will be looping over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday and Monday and move eastward or east northwestward towards the general direction of the PAR region. However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the weather disturbance east of the PAR region which is expected to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
KRISTINE is forecast to re-intensify as it moves over the West Philippine Sea. While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out.

Location of Eye/center

The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Santa Cruz, Ilocos Sur (17.0 °N, 120.3 °E )

Movement

Moving West Southwestward at 15 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h

Forecast Position

Oct 24, 2024 11:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Candon, Ilocos Sur
Oct 25, 2024 11:00 AM - 200 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Oct 25, 2024 11:00 PM - 400 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
Oct 26, 2024 11:00 AM - 630 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
Oct 26, 2024 11:00 PM - 825 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Oct 27, 2024 11:00 AM - 980 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Oct 28, 2024 11:00 AM - 970 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Oct 29, 2024 11:00 AM - 680 km West of Bacnotan, La Union (OUTSIDE PAR)

Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan
Meteorological Condition	A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of greater than 89 km/h up to 117 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind	Heavy damage to high–risk structures. Moderate damage to medium-risk structures. Light damage to low risk structures. Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed. Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed. There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. Almost all banana plants are downed. Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted. Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed. Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures	The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected. The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts. Travel is very risky especially by sea and air. People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks. Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north. When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south. Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings. Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do	If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses. Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area. Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge. All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled. Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon Ilocos Norte, Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, the western portion of Batangas (Nasugbu, Lian), the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands, and Lubang Islands
Meteorological Condition	A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality. Winds of greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind	Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures. Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures. No damage to very light damage to low risk structures. Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed. A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed. Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off. Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed. Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards. In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken. Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken. Rice and corn may be adversely affected. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures	The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality. The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks. Outdoor activities of children should be postponed. Secure properties before the signal is upgraded. Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do	Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods. Keep your cell phones fully charged. Elevate household things in case of flooding. For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon Laguna, the rest of Batangas, rest of Quezon, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the northern portion of mainland Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, San Vicente, Dumaran, Roxas) including Calamian Islands, Cuyo, and, Kalayaan Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands Visayas Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santa Margarita, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Gandara, Matuguinao),
Meteorological Condition	A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind	Very light or no damage to low risk structures. Light damage to medium to high risk structures. Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged. Twigs of small trees may be broken. Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures	When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level. The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher. The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur. Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do	Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed. Clean up drainage system. Harvest crops tha can be yielded. Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Archive