Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5

Tropical Storm "Carina"

Issued at 11:00 pm, 20 July 2024
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow)

  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  • Forecast accumulated rainfall: Tomorrow evening to Monday evening
  • 50-100 mm: The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands
  • Forecast accumulated rainfall: Monday evening to Tuesday evening
  • 50-100 mm: Batanes and Babuyan Islands
  • Severe Winds
  • The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 1 over Extreme Northern Luzon and northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out, possibly by tomorrow or on Monday in anticipation of strong winds associated with CARINA.
  • The Southwest Monsoon that will be enhanced by CARINA and Tropical Depression (formerly BUTCHOY) will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
  • Tomorrow (21 July): Kalayaan Islands
  • Monday (22 July): Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas
  • Tuesday (23 July): Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas.
  • In the next 24 hours, CARINA and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate seas over the coastal waters along the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon (1.0-2.0 m), the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon (1.0-2.5 m), and the eastern seaboard of the country (1.0-2.5 m). 
  • Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea.
  • Over the Philippine Sea, CARINA is forecast to move generally northwestward until tomorrow (21 July), then turn north northwestward or northward until Tuesday (23 July). In general, CARINA will remain far from the Philippine landmass and is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday (24 July). Outside the PAR, CARINA will turn generally northwestward on Wednesday and pass close to the islands in the Ryukyu archipelago towards the East China Sea.
  • CARINA is forecast to steadily intensify and reach severe tropical storm by Monday (22 July). Beginning on Monday, the tropical cyclone intensify further at a faster rate, eventually reaching typhoon category on Tuesday. Rapid intensification during this period is possible.
Location of Eye/center

The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 545 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.7 °N, 127.2 °E )


Moving Northwestward at 20 km/h


Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h

Forecast Position
  • Jul 21, 2024 08:00 AM - 555 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
  • Jul 21, 2024 08:00 PM - 495 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
  • Jul 22, 2024 08:00 AM - 480 km East of Calayan, Cagayan
  • Jul 22, 2024 08:00 PM - 390 km East of Basco, Batanes
  • Jul 23, 2024 08:00 AM - 390 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
  • Jul 23, 2024 08:00 PM - 440 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes
  • Jul 24, 2024 08:00 PM - 640 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • Jul 25, 2024 08:00 PM - 860 km North of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal

    Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.