PAGASA

Typhoon "Ofel"

Typhoon "Ofel"

Issued at 05:00 pm, 14 November 2024

(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 8:00 PM today)

“OFEL” FURTHER WEAKENS OVER MAINLAND CAGAYAN AND CONTINUES TO THREATEN BABUYAN ISLANDS

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 32 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “OFEL”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Coastal Inundation
There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 9 issued at 2:00 PM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 PM today for more details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and Batanes
Up to 6.0 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora
Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora and Ilocos Norte, the seaboard of northern mainland Quezon, the northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands.
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte and Ilocos Sur, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
Up to 2.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
OFEL will continue crossing the northeastern portion of mainland Luzon this afternoon. It will then continue moving northwestward and pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands tonight before turning northward tomorrow (15 November) over the sea west of Batanes, then northeastward over the sea east of Taiwan during the weekend. Note that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
OFEL has started to weaken due to increasing interaction with the landmass of Luzon. It will continue to weaken throughout the forecast period due to frictional effects of land, as well as the increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan.

Location of Eye/center

The center of Typhoon OFEL was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Gonzaga, Cagayan or In the vicinity of Isca, Cagayan (18.2 °N, 122.0 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwestward 20 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 275 km/h

Forecast Position

Nov 15, 2024 02:00 AM - Over the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan
Nov 15, 2024 02:00 PM - 180 km West of Itbayat, Batanes
Nov 16, 2024 02:00 AM - 200 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
Nov 16, 2024 02:00 PM - 210 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
Nov 17, 2024 02:00 AM - 225 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
Nov 17, 2024 02:00 PM - 300 km North of Itbayat, Batanes
Nov 18, 2024 02:00 PM - 465 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes

Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon Babuyan Islands and the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira)
Meteorological Condition	A very intense typhoon will affect the locality. Winds of greater than 118 km/h up to 184 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours.
Impact of the Wind	Very heavy damage to high–risk structures. Heavy damage to medium risk structures. Moderate damage to low-risk structures. Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures. Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows. A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged. All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation. Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken. Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage. Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Precautionary Measures	The situation is potentially very destructive to the community. All travels and outdoor activities should be cancelled. Evacuation to safer shelters should have been completed since it may be too late under this situation. With PSWS #4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon. As the eye of the typhoon approaches, the weather will continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds (a lull) will be experienced. This means that the eye of the typhoon is over the locality. This improved weather may last for one to two hours depending on the diameter of the eye and the speed of movement. As the eye moves out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south. The disaster coordinating councils concerned and other disaster response organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness to immediately respond to possible calamity.
What To Do	If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses. Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area. Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge. All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled. Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, the northern portion of Isabela (San Pablo, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Maconacon, Delfin Albano), the northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg)
Meteorological Condition	A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of greater than 89 km/h up to 117 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind	Heavy damage to high–risk structures. Moderate damage to medium-risk structures. Light damage to low risk structures. Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed. Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed. There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. Almost all banana plants are downed. Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted. Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed. Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures	The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected. The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts. Travel is very risky especially by sea and air. People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks. Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north. When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south. Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings. Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do	If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses. Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area. Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge. All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled. Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon The western and eastern portions of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, San Mariano, Palanan, Ilagan City, Divilacan, Dinapigue), the rest of Apayao, Kalinga, the northeastern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis), and the rest of Ilocos Norte.
Meteorological Condition	A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality. Winds of greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind	Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures. Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures. No damage to very light damage to low risk structures. Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed. A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed. Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off. Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed. Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards. In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken. Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken. Rice and corn may be adversely affected. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures	The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality. The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks. Outdoor activities of children should be postponed. Secure properties before the signal is upgraded. Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do	Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods. Keep your cell phones fully charged. Elevate household things in case of flooding. For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas	Luzon The rest of Isabela, Quirino, the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Ambaguio, Solano, Bayombong, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Villaverde, Dupax del Norte, Bambang), the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Abra, the northern portion of Benguet (Mankayan, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias), Ilocos Sur, the northern portion of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, Balaoan), and the northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Dipaculao).
Meteorological Condition	A tropical cyclone will affect the locality. Winds of 39-61 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind	Very light or no damage to low risk structures. Light damage to medium to high risk structures. Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged. Twigs of small trees may be broken. Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures	When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level. The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher. The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur. Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do	Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed. Clean up drainage system. Harvest crops tha can be yielded. Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Archive