Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17

Typhoon "Ofel"

Issued at 11:00 pm, 14 November 2024
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 2:00 AM tomorrow)

“OFEL” FURTHER WEAKENS WHILE PASSING THROUGH BABUYAN ISLANDS.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  •  
  • Refer to Weather Advisory No. 34 issued at 11:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “OFEL” and “PEPITO”.
  •  
  • Severe Winds
  •  
  • The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
  • Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
  • Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
  • Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
  • Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
  • Coastal Inundation
  •  
  • There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
  • A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 5A issued at 11:00 PM today for more details.
  •  
  • 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
  •  
  • Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
  • Up to 7.0 m: The northern seaboards of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan
  • Up to 5.5 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
  • Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
  • Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
  • Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
  • Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental
  • Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes
  • Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
  • TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
  • OFEL will continue moving northwestward and pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands tonight before turning north northwestward to northward tomorrow (15 November) until Saturday (16 November) morning over the sea west of Batanes. This is the period when the tropical cyclone is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). OFEL will then turn northeastward towards Taiwan while re-entering the PAR over the rest of the weekend. Note that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
  • OFEL is forecast to continue to weaken throughout the forecast period due to frictional effects of land as well as the increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan, where OFEL may weaken into a remnant Low.
Location of Eye/center

The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Calayan, Cagayan (18.7 °N, 121.5 °E )

Movement

Moving Northwestward at 15 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 200 km/h

Forecast Position
  • Nov 15, 2024 08:00 AM - 195 km West of Basco, Batanes
  • Nov 15, 2024 08:00 PM - 230 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • Nov 16, 2024 08:00 AM - 245 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • Nov 16, 2024 08:00 PM - 240 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
  • Nov 17, 2024 08:00 AM - 235 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Taitung County, Taiwan
  • Nov 17, 2024 08:00 PM - 260 km North of Itbayat, Batanes
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The northern portion of Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes, Lal-Lo, Allacapan) including Babuyan Islands
Meteorological Condition
  • A very intense typhoon will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 118 km/h up to 184 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Very heavy damage to high–risk structures.
  • Heavy damage to medium risk structures.
  • Moderate damage to low-risk structures.
  • Considerable damage to structures of light materials (up to 75% are totally and partially destroyed); complete roof structure failures.
  • Many houses of medium-built materials are unroofed, some with collapsed walls; extensive damage to doors and windows.
  • A few houses of first-class materials are partially damaged.
  • All signs/billboards are blown down. There is almost total damage to banana plantation.
  • Most mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of large trees are downed or broken.
  • Coconut plantation may suffer extensive damage.
  • Rice and corn plantation may suffer severe losses.
Precautionary Measures
  • The situation is potentially very destructive to the community.
  • All travels and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Evacuation to safer shelters should have been completed since it may be too late under this situation.
  • With PSWS #4, the locality is very likely to be hit directly by the eye of the typhoon. As the eye of the typhoon approaches, the weather will continuously worsen with the winds increasing to its strongest coming generally from the north. Then a sudden improvement of the weather with light winds (a lull) will be experienced. This means that the eye of the typhoon is over the locality. This improved weather may last for one to two hours depending on the diameter of the eye and the speed of movement. As the eye moves out of the locality, the worst weather experienced before the lull will suddenly commence. This time the very strong winds will come generally from the south.
  • The disaster coordinating councils concerned and other disaster response organizations are now fully responding to emergencies and in full readiness to immediately respond to possible calamity.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The southern portion of Batanes (Basco, Mahatao, Ivana, Uyugan, Sabtang), the central and southeastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Lasam, Alcala, Amulung, Iguig, Santo Niño, Rizal, Piat, Peñablanca, Baggao, Gattaran), the northern and central portions of Apayao (Flora, Pudtol, Kabugao, Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Dumalneg, Bangui, Pagudpud, Pasuquin, Burgos, Vintar, Carasi)
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 89 km/h up to 117 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Heavy damage to high–risk structures.
  • Moderate damage to medium-risk structures.
  • Light damage to low risk structures.
  • Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed.
  • Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
  • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
  • Almost all banana plants are downed.
  • Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
  • Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
  • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
  • Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures
  • The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
  • The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
  • Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
  • People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
  • When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
  • Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
  • Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.
What To Do
  • If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
  • Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
  • Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
  • All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
  • Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The rest of Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, the northern portion of Isabela (Quezon, Delfin Albano, Tumauini, Maconacon, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santo Tomas, Santa Maria), the rest of Apayao, the northern portion of Kalinga (Pinukpuk, Rizal, City of Tabuk, Balbalan), the northern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman), and the rest of Ilocos Norte
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
  • Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
  • No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
  • Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
  • A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
  • Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
  • Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
  • Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
  • In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
  • Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
  • Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
  • Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures
  • The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts
  • Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality.
  • The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks.
  • Outdoor activities of children should be postponed.
  • Secure properties before the signal is upgraded.
  • Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do
  • Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods.
  • Keep your cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household things in case of flooding.
  • For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • The rest of Isabela, the northeastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), the rest of Abra, the rest of Kalinga, Mountain Province, the northern portion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Banaue, Mayoyao, Hingyon, Hungduan, Lagawe, Kiangan, Alfonso Lista), the northern and central portions of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, San Ildefonso, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Vicente, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa Catalina, Santa, Nagbukel, Narvacan, Gregorio del Pilar, San Esteban, Banayoyo, Cervantes, Burgos, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Santiago, Lidlidda, Suyo, Sigay, Galimuyod, Quirino, San Emilio, Santa Cruz, Santa Maria, Salcedo), and the northern portion of Aurora (Casiguran, Dilasag)
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 39-61 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
  • Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
  • Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
  • Twigs of small trees may be broken.
  • Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
    Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Archive

Severe Tropical Storm "Pepito"

Issued at 11:00 pm, 14 November 2024
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow)

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “MANYI” HAS ENTERED THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AND WAS GIVEN THE LOCAL NAME “PEPITO”.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  •  
  • Severe Tropical Storm PEPITO is currently not directly affecting any part of the country. However, a Weather Advisory No. 34 was issued at 11PM today in anticipation of the heavy rainfall caused by PEPITO, apart from those caused by OFEL.
  •  
  • Severe Winds
  •  
  • The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
  •  
  • Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
  •  
  • The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5.
  • Coastal Inundation
  •  
  • Storm surge warning may be raised over the coastal waters of Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas over the next hours.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
  • A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 5A issued at 11:00 PM today for more details.
  •  
  • 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
  •  
  • Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
  • Up to 7.0 m: The northern seaboards of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan
  • Up to 5.5 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
  • Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
  • Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
  • Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
  • Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental
  • Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes
  • Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
  • TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
  • Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, PEPITO is forecast to move westward over the next 24 hours before turning west northwestward to northwestward over the Philippine Sea while passing close to Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. On the track forecast, PEPITO may make landfall over the eastern coast of Central Luzon during the weekend (16 or 17 November). It must be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 3rd and 4th day of the forecast track. Therefore, the landfall point may also shift within the range of the forecast confidence cone from the eastern coast of Central Luzon to the eastern coast of Eastern Visayas. This tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday (18 November).
  • PEPITO is forecast to intensify into a typhoon tomorrow (15 November). This tropical cyclone may reach super typhoon category by Saturday (16 November) afternoon or evening and may possibly make landfall at peak intensity. Due to land interaction, it may weaken into a typhoon by Sunday evening until it exits the PAR region.
  • Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards and due to the shifting track forecast of PEPITO, most areas in Luzon and Eastern Visayas are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from PEPITO which may cause considerable impacts.
Location of Eye/center

The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 945 km East of Eastern Visayas (10.5 °N, 134.4 °E )

Movement

Moving Westward at 35 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h

Forecast Position
  • Nov 15, 2024 08:00 AM - 1,010 km East of Eastern Visayas
  • Nov 15, 2024 08:00 PM - 380 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
  • Nov 16, 2024 08:00 AM - 245 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar
  • Nov 16, 2024 08:00 PM - 100 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
  • Nov 17, 2024 08:00 AM - 170 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
  • Nov 17, 2024 08:00 PM - In the vicinity of Quezon, Nueva Vizcaya
  • Nov 18, 2024 08:00 PM - 365 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • Nov 19, 2024 08:00 PM - 715 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Catanduanes, The eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Garchitorena, Presentacion, San Jose, Lagonoy), the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Legazpi City, Malinao, Manito, Tiwi), and the eastern and southern portions of Sorsogon (Juban, City of Sorsogon, Barcelona, Bulusan, Magallanes, Gubat, Santa Magdalena, Casiguran, Bulan, Irosin, Matnog, Prieto Diaz)
  • Visayas
    • Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad, Maslog, Dolores, Oras), and the northeastern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan)
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 39-61 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
  • Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
  • Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
  • Twigs of small trees may be broken.
  • Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
    Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Archive

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