PAGASA

LA NIÑA ALERT

12 July 2024

DOST-PAGASA S & T Media Service
Quezon City 12 July 2024

LA NIÑA ALERT

Recent DOST-PAGASA’s climate monitoring and analyses show further cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 70% chance of La Niña forming in August-September-October (ASO) 2024 season and is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2025. With this development, the DOST-PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Alert. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average SSTs at the CEEP. The country may experience a higher chance of increased convective activity and tropical cyclone occurrence which may bring above normal rainfall over some parts of the country in the coming months. Potential adverse impacts may include floods and landslides over vulnerable areas, with varying magnitude.
DOST-PAGASA will continue to closely monitor any significant developments in this climate phenomenon. Meanwhile, all concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to monitor and take precautionary measures against impending climate impacts.

For more information, please call the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 or 4921 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com.

Original Signed:

NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO, Ph.D.
Administrator