PAGASA

LA NIÑA ALERT

14 September 2021

PRESS STATEMENT
DOST-PAGASA
S&T Media Service
Quezon City

PAGASA's recent climate monitoring and analysis indicate that La Niña may emerge in the coming months. La Niña is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Based on the latest forecasts by most climate models and experts judgments, there is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022.

Rainfall forecasts also suggest a higher probability of above-normal rainfall conditions in many areas of the country in the next several months. This can be attributed to the expected stronger easterlies, enhanced Northeast (NE) monsoon and tropical cyclone occurrences. Furthermore, the eastern sections of the country which normally receive more rainfall during the last quarter of the year could further increase the likelihood of more adverse impacts such as floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas.

With this scenario, all concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this looming La Niña.

PAGASA will closely monitor these conditions and regular updates and advisories shall be issued as appropriate. For more information, you may contact the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone number 8284-0800 local 906 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com

Original Signed:

VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D.
Administrator